“We, as South Africans, will not be passive bystanders and watch the crimes that were visited upon us being perpetrated elsewhere.” (South Africa’s President, Cyril Ramaphosa in an address to the nation reported on the 26th January 2024) South Africa Vs the State of Israel and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Introduction On the 29th December 2023 South Africa filed a case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel for what it said were “genocidal” acts by Israel in the Gaza Strip. In the United Nations press release (No. 2023/77) the ICJ informed press release stated: According to the Application, “acts and omissions by Israel . . . are genocidal in character, as they are committed with the requisite specific intent . . . to destroy Palestinians in Gaza as a part of the broader Palestinian national, racial and ethnical group” and that “the conduct of Israel — through its State organs, State agents, and other persons and entities acting on its instructions or under its direction, control or influence — in relation to Palestinians in Gaza, is in violation of its obligations under the Genocide Convention”. The Applicant further states that “Israel, since 7th October 2023 in particular, has failed to prevent genocide and has failed to prosecute the direct and public incitement to genocide” and that “Israel has engaged in, is engaging in and risks further engaging in genocidal acts against the Palestinian people in Gaza”. On the 7th October 2023 the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas launched its military operation known as “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.” The result was a brutal attack on the State of Israel. The state of Israel declared war on Hamas. During the attack 1,139 Israeli’s and foreign nationals were murdered which included 766 civilians and 373 members of the Israeli Security Forces. Hamas along with other terrorist groups forcibly took 253 Israeli and foreign captives. Hamas said its attack was in response to the continued Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, the blockade of the Gaza Strip, the expansion of illegal Israeli settlements, as well as the alleged "Judaization" of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the plight of Palestinian refugees and prisoners. The main supporter for Hamas is the Islamic Republic of Iran who claim they had no involvement with the ruthless and vicious attack on Israel. However, what cannot be ignored is the comment by Major General Hossein Salami, chief commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). In the Tehran Times[1] on the 10th May 2023 stated, “Big events are just around the corner. Justice will return to the region, and hopes have been renewed.” The government of Tehran claim that they are not involved but support the Palestinian cause. It appears that attacks on Israel from Hamas’s military wing, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, The Palestine Islamic Jihad and others along with Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthi movement Ansarullah and Iranian backed Iraq’s Kata'ib Hizballah (KH) has no leader and is non hierarchal. All are known to be used by Iran as they pursue their revolutionary ideology of removing the State of Israel, permanently, by any means possible. South Africa and the Islamic Republic of Iran Relationship The Islamic Republic of Iran’s attempt at breaking its isolationism due to sanctions imposed on the country mainly by the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union and with others has in the past turned to Africa. Iran attempts to bring other countries under its financial wing by playing on the history of the country and their colonial past. Iran uses its own history under the Shah of Iran prior to him being overthrown in the 1979 Iranian revolution as one such case. South Africa and Iran both have common backgrounds with Iran being sanctioned and South Africa suffering in the past under anti-apartheid sanctions. By using their comparisons and the promise of ‘bilateral trading’ Iran not just seeks to influence others but also gain a foothold in order to use them to Iran’s advantage. South Africa is one country that Iran sees as being useful to its future possible use, should a case arise. By playing on South Africa’s past under the apartheid era, Iran can use this as an influence to persuade the government of South Africa to become a friend of Iran. South Africa realising how Iran could possibly help the Cape Town government with cheap oil for example believes that Iran is a useful ally. Iran was one of the first countries to resume trade with South Africa after end of apartheid. The two have been strong since. South Africa not openly supports Iran on decisive issues with the United Nations but also commits to ensuring deep diplomatic ties and the two engage in joint business-tech forums, scientific cooperation and tourism. There is also a strong interaction with the Tehran government and the South African military navies. In December 2019 Iran and South Africa had signed basic military cooperation agreements, and Iran’s deputy minister of defence met with South Africa’s chief of defence force staff in Tehran in May to discuss “the development of defence cooperation (that would achieve) long term and strategic engagement.” While deepening defence ties with South Africa is important to projecting Iranian military might, Iran’s navy frequently faces maintenance issues and its deployed forces are largely symbolic. Nelson Mandela a former political prisoner and member of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation) the military wing of the African National Congress, became president of South Africa in May 1994.The Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries to lift sanctions against South Africa after the country attained a black majority rule in 1995. A Joint Commission of Cooperation (JCC) between the two countries was formed after that. The South Africa-Iran JCC is a structured bilateral mechanism established in 1995 to enhance cooperation between the two countries in various areas. The JCC is the longest running and one of the most active structured bilateral mechanisms South Africa has with any country in the Middle East region. The JCC meets regularly to discuss issues of mutual interest and to explore ways of deepening cooperation between the two countries. The 15th session of the JCC was held in Pretoria, South Africa on the 10th August 2023. 11th/12th January 2024 Hague case at the ICJ The ICJ case brought about by South Africa has given the Israeli’s an opportunity to stand up for itself on a world platform requested by others who oppose their right to self-defence. South Africa and Israel presented their cases to the ICJ verbally over the two days of the 11th and 12th January 2024. South Africa with its Iranian backers sought to stop the war in Gaza by using an international body to state that Israel was committing genocide in the Gaza Strip against the Palestinians. Israel has claimed on numerous occasions that their conflict is with Hamas not the Palestinians and that it is Hamas, the elected Palestinian authority in the Gaza Strip not the Israelis that are using their own people as human shields and placing thousands of innocent Palestinians in harm’s way. South Africa wanted an order by the ICJ to halt the Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip basing their accusation on a case of genocide. The countries that have in the past and continue to do so now who accused Israel of genocide are doing so incorrectly as has been proven on the 26th January 2024 in the Hague court’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) verdict. The Islamic Republic of Iran who endorsed the South African bid to stop the war between Israel and Hamas on the grounds that Israel was committing genocide against the Palestinian people have been proven wrong and incorrect. South Africa’s Claim South Africa claimed on the 11th January 2024 at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) court in the Hague that Israel had, “demonstrated a pattern of genocidal conduct since launching its war on the Gaza Strip.” The court heard, “This killing is nothing short of destruction of Palestinian life. It is inflicted deliberately, no-one is spared, not even newborn babies.” Israel’s actions had subjected the 2.3 million people of Gaza to an unprecedented level of attacks from the air, land and sea, resulting in the deaths of thousands of civilians and the destruction of homes and essential public infrastructure, insisted Adila Hassim. Israel had also prevented sufficient humanitarian aid from reaching those in need and created the risk of death by starvation and disease because of the impossibility of providing assistance “while bombs fall”, the South Africa lawyer alleged. “Palestinians in Gaza are subject to relentless bombing wherever they go,” Ms. Hassim told the court, adding that so many people had been killed that they were often buried unidentified in mass graves. An additional 60,000 Palestinians had been wounded and maimed, she noted. “They are killed in their homes, in places where they seek shelter, in hospitals, in schools, in mosques, in churches, and as they tried to find food and water for their families. They have been killed if they have failed to evacuate the places to which they have fled and even if they attempted to flee along Israeli-declared safe routes.” The State of Israel Response A column in the Jerusalem Post wrote that “South Africa goes to war against Israel at the ICJ.” Describing South Africa as, “Overcast by a world-leading homicide rate of 41 murders annually per 100,000 people, your country is a nexus of human trafficking, drug dealing, arms trade, embezzlement, rape, robbery, carjacking, burglary, mugging, pickpocketing, and every other form of crime whether petty, organized, financial, or political. Corrupt to the bone, your land is a social tragedy and a moral hell.” A country who claims to be in solidarity with the Palestinians and yet has a serious record of crimes in their own country. John Kirby, US National Security Council spokesman said, “claims that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza are “meritless,” and the lawsuit brought on by South Africa is “counterproductive.” Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defence and Democracies (FDD) said, “It is a dismal day when Israel, haven for the survivors of the Holocaust, is brought up before the court created in the hope of preventing another Holocaust. One trusts the Israeli defence will ably turn the tables on this farce and remind the world that Hamas, on October 7, proved that it is the actual genocidal party in this conflict.” The British government said it had “considerable concerns” about a ruling by the United Nation’s top court that Israel should do everything it can to prevent any acts of genocide in Gaza. A Foreign Office spokesperson said in a statement. “Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas in line with international humanitarian law (IHL),” the spokesperson added. “Our view is that Israel’s actions in Gaza cannot be described as genocide, which is why we thought South Africa’s decision to bring the case was wrong and provocative.” The Intercept, an online American nonprofit news organization that publishes articles wrote, “Israel’s representative Tal Becker opened his government’s rebuttal by telling the judges at the ICJ that South Africa’s case “profoundly distorted the factual and legal picture,” claiming it sought to erase Jewish history. He charged that the legal arguments made by South Africa’s team were “barely distinguishable” from Hamas’s rhetoric and accused them of “weaponizing” the term “genocide.” Becker called October 7 “the largest calculated mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust” and pleaded with the court to factor in the “brutality and lawlessness” of the enemy Israel says it is fighting in Gaza. Israel, he said, has a lawful right to use all available means to respond “to the slaughter of October 7 which Hamas has vowed to repeat.” The Intercept went on to report, Becker also alleged that South Africa’s lawyers had failed to mention how many of the buildings blown up and destroyed in Gaza over the past three months of sustained Israeli bombing were actually “boobytrapped” by Hamas rather than destroyed by Israel. It was a risible claim given not only the scale of the Israeli bombardment of entire neighbourhoods, but also because Israeli soldiers have posted of themselves gleefully hitting the detonate button to obliterate whole neighbourhoods. He dismissed civilian death and injury figures provided by Gaza health authorities, saying that South Africa’s lawyers had failed to mention how many of the dead Palestinians were actually Hamas operatives. It was a striking point given that Israeli officials have openly and repeatedly said that there are no innocents in Gaza, and that United Nations workers and journalists killed by Israel are actually secret Hamas agents. Becker also claimed that Israel was complying with international law in all of its operations in Gaza. “Israel does not seek to destroy a people, but to protect a people — its [own] people,” he said, adding that Israel is engaged in a “war of defence against Hamas, not the Palestinian people.” There could “hardly be a charge more false and more malevolent than the charge of genocide.” He accused South Africa of abusing the world court and turning it into an “aggressor’s charter.” The ICJ Ruling On the 26th January 2024 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) gave its ruling. It stated that although there was plausibility that Israel ‘may’ be committing genocide this could not be defined at that time. The court stated that the State of Israel had a right to self-defence but should take steps to reduce the number of Palestinian casualties. The findings also said that there was no immediate measure to state that the case of genocide against the State of Israel was in fact being carried out. Israel had a set of measures that had to implemented immediately and effectively by the ICJ to prevent civilian casualties and these actions were to be reported back to the court within a month. The Court deem it necessary to emphasize that all parties to the conflict in the Gaza Strip are bound by international humanitarian law. It is gravely concerned about the fate of the hostages abducted during the attack on Israel on the 7th October 2023 and held since then by Hamas and other armed groups, the court called for their immediate and unconditional release. “Support” from the Islamic Republic of Iran Iran who has praised the “brave action” of South Africa, who claimed a “decisive victory” for the international rule of law. Iran has been pushing for the caseation of hostilities since the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas after Hamas murdered hundreds of innocent Israelis since the unprovoked attack by Hamas on Israel on the 7th October 2023. The court did not say that the State of Israel had to stop the fighting in the Gaza Strip. There was no verdict given stating that Israel had to cease its war with Hamas. Its verdict said that they had to take precautions against the killing of civilians. Something that Hamas does not do. It is thought that the Israeli’s have killed over 9, 000 Hamas operatives since Israel declared war against Hamas. Iran would dearly like to save what is left of its proxy organisation in order to fight another day. However, Israel has declared that it is going to destroy any capability that Hamas has should they attack them again, which the terrorist group has promised to do in the future. According to the Iranian propaganda outlet Fars News Agency reported, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian welcomed the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) ruling ordering Israel to prevent the genocide of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, calling on his counterparts worldwide to back South Africa's move at the United Nations' top court. Amir Abdollahian extended his congratulations to the South African government and nation, particularly his counterpart Naledi Pandor, as well as the Palestinian people over Pretoria's success at the ICJ. The top diplomat once again reiterated Iran's support for South Africa's ‘initiative’, and urged his counterparts across the world to also throw their weight behind the African country's move at the top court. The court ruling made no indication that Hamas should also take steps to ensure that they do not harm their own people. There was no mention by the Iranian Islamic State regarding the court ruling ordering the Palestinian militant group Hamas to return the remaining 140 hostages who were captured during the 7th October 2023 attack, in which 1,200 people were killed. Is South Africa now a proxy group (resistance group) of the Tehran government? Iran uses other proxy groups to conduct conflict without getting its hands soiled. Does this mean that by encouraging South Africa to file a case against Israel that it did so knowing that it would not win but saved face by having another nation do it for them? Russia Federation Vs the Ukraine Genocide Case Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation) is a case brought before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the principal judicial organ of the United Nations. It was submitted by Ukraine on 26th February 2022 against Russia following the latter's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which Russia sought to justify in part by claims that Ukraine was engaged in acts of genocide within the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Initial hearings in the case took place on 7th March 2022 at Peace Palace in The Hague, Netherlands. The Russian delegation did not appear for these proceedings, but submitted a written statement. On the 16th March 2022 the court ruled 13–2 that Russia must "immediately suspend the military operations" it commenced on 24 February 2022 in Ukraine, with Vice-President Kirill Gevorgian of Russia and Judge Xue Hanqin of China dissenting. By ordering Russia to cease hostilities against the Ukraine it says that there is a case to answer in regards to genocide unlike the South African case against the State of Israel. The final decision by the court has yet to be announced. The fighting in the Ukraine between the two countries continues with Russia making no heed to the ICJ court. War in the Republic of the Sudan Sudan, officially the Republic of the Sudan has been at war with itself since the 15th April 2023 during Ramadan. As of 21st January 2024, at least 13,000–15,000 people had been killed and 33,000 others were injured. As of 29 December 2023, over 5.8 million were internally displaced and more than 1.5 million others had fled the country as refugees, and many civilians in Darfur have been reported dead as part of the 2023 Masalit genocidal massacres. The war is between two Sudanese factions, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Hemedti, rival factions of the military government of Sudan. The raping of females by both sides has become a daily occurrence and the intimidation and attacks on journalists have become frequent. War crimes are being perpetrated in the Sudan by both sides against hospitals and caused using aerial bombings and artillery. Massacres and ethnic cleansing are being committed. Torture, killing of individuals and assassinations of intellectuals, politicians, professionals and nobility have been reported. The Arab News reported on the conflict on the 20th January and wrote that ethnic killings in one Sudan’s Darfur city left up to 15,000 dead in 2023. The Sudan Tribune claimed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had been accused of supplying weapons and ammunition to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the north an accusation that the UAE rejects, while Iran has been supplying Sudan’s army with combat drones. Rather than taking the State of Israel in the Middle East to the International Court of Justice on lose claims of genocide, why is South Africa not concentrating stoping the international reported genocide in the Republic of the Sudan? The conflict is in its own continent and has been ongoing far longer than the Israel and Hamas conflict. The State of Israel Vs the Islamic State of Iran Iran states it fully supports South Africa’s filing lawsuit against Israel. Iran’s President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi has expressed his admiration for the nation's firm stance against racism and genocide. During a phone call with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Raisi highlighted that this praiseworthy action is not only recognized and respected in the Islamic world but also applauded by freedom-loving nations worldwide. Raisi went on to say he, “hailed the African government’s initiative and courageous move.” It is important at this point to remember that the ideology of Iran, Hamas, Palestinian Jihad, and Hezbollah is to remove Israel not in part but completely from ‘Palestinian’ land. It is also important to remember that the Iranian president has said that he, “expressed his admiration for the nation's firm stance against racism and genocide.” In another statement regarding the verdict the Iranian president said, “this measure, taken by a country that has experienced the bitterness of racism and genocide for years, has been hailed and applauded not only by the Islamic world, but the whole free and freedom-seeking nations.” With so much respect for South Africa and its filing of the case of genocide against Israel. Will they feel the same when the State of Israel files a genocide case against the Islamic State of Iran? On the 28th January 2024 Israeli cabinet minister Gideon Sa’ar who has held posts in the Israel government such as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice declared that he would be starting work against Iran on genocide charges. Will the Islamic Republic of Iran still have the respect for international law and justice when this case is heard? Conclusion There are two distinctive cases here which clearly shows the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling. In the conflict between the Russian Federation and the Ukraine the court could see there was a case to answer and ordered Russia to ‘immediately’ stop fighting. In the case of South Africa Vs, the State of Israel there was no clear evidence and no such stipulation to cease fighting was ordered. The case of genocide against the State of Israel had no standing from the word go and although the ICJ believes there is a ‘plausible’ case of genocide the case was not strong enough to warrant an order to stop the conflict unlike the case against the Russian Federation. It is extremely doubtful the terrorist group Hamas and others taking part in the conflict will adhere to international law nor will they release the hostages. South Africa has now shown its true colours by nailing them to the mast in Tehran. It has shown that South Africa can be manipulated by its puppet master, Iran. South Africa is now meddling in Middle Eastern issues rather than looking after affairs on their own continent. The hand of Iran is once again stirring the pot. The unseen hand of Iran has been seen in the Russia/Ukraine conflict with the selling, manufacturing and advising on drones and in the war in Sudan. If the State of Israel is preparing a case for genocide against Iran and its proxies then their defence starts before the slaughter of innocents on the 7th October 2023. Its starts in 1979 when Ruhollah Khomeini created the state which is now known today as the Islamic Republic of Iran. Paul Ashley ANNEX A 26 Jan 24 APPLICATION OF THE CONVENTION ON THE PREVENTION AND PUNISHMENT OF THE CRIME OF GENOCIDE IN THE GAZA STRIP (SOUTH AFRICA v. ISRAEL) 12 Jan 24 The Intercept: AT THE HAGUE, ISRAEL MOUNTED A DEFENSE BASED IN AN ALTERNATE REALITY 26 Jan 24 Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel) [1] The Tehran Times is a daily newspaper published in Iran, founded in 1979 as the self-styled "voice of the Islamic Revolution". While not state-owned, it is considered state-controlled and closely tied to the hardline factions within the Iranian government. [2] A news agency in Iran managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an armed wing loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Introduction
The last conflict involving the Islamic Republic of Iran was the war against Iraq from 1980 – 1988 in which neither side came out as a clear victor. After eight years of war a ceasefire was declared between the two countries with no direct winner. The Iranians finally accepted United Nations Resolution 598 on the 20th July 1988 and a cease-fire came into force on the 20th August 20 1988. Since the end of the conflict, both Iran and Iraq have officially recognized the ceasefire, and there has not been a resumption of hostilities. Diplomatic relations have been re-established, and the two countries maintain economic and political ties. So much so that Iran is embedded within Iraqi politics and its military capabilities. However, throughout the Middle East there have been many skirmishes to which you can find the hand of Iran mixing disorder and chaos somewhere in the background. By using their proxies, or the Iranian resistance axis, Iran prefers to keep its hands out of the jumble of uncertainty. They use terms such as ‘baseless’ or those accusing them of wrongdoing as being ‘Iranophobic’ or ‘politically-motivated’. Language given in order to dissuade the accuser of actually saying anything negative about the theocratic Tehran government. Since the current Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi came to office on the 3rd August 2021 he has been stating how he wants to promote ‘friendliness’ and ‘neighbourliness’ in the area of the Middle East and West Asia. He sees this as a way of amalgamating Muslim nations in common causes, such as security in those areas mentioned. There is a long-term goal here but one that at the moment is not very clear. Although one reason is to levitate itself from the isolation that it has found itself in due to its own makings. But it must be made clear that the ideology of the revolution lives every day and to that end Iran will not change no matter how neighbourly they come across. Bullying and Intimidation Tactics 2022 There are times when the Islamic Republic of Iran likes to show the world how powerful they are by flexing its mass and using that weight to fire missiles or rockets at those ‘they believe’ are threatening them and to show that they are not easily threatened. In March 2022 Iran launched missiles into the autonomous region of Kurdistan in the north of Iraq. The Iranian account was that they were targeting ‘terrorist’ groups that were based there after constant warnings from Iran regarding terrorist hiding near the border between Iraq/Kurdistan and Iran. The other story that was pushed out was that the targets were possibly a new United States consulate being built in Erbil. One civilian was injured in the attack. Erbil is the capital city of Kurdistan and is nowhere near the border with Iran with the two nearest Iranian border towns of Piranshahr, Iran being116 Km direct and Sardasht, Iran being 170Km from Erbil. Iran claimed on the 13th March 2022 that they had targeted with ballistic missiles a United States base and Mossad Training Centres. Iraq demanded a “frank and clear explanation” for the attack from Iran. The Iraqi’s “summoned Iran's ambassador to Iraq to protest the Iranian missile bombardment of Erbil and the material losses it caused, and damage to civilian facilities and housing for citizens, in addition to spreading fear among the residents of those areas.” Iran claimed that it had warned Iraq many times in the past that Iraqi territory ‘should not be used to conduct attacks on Iran.’ They also claimed on the 14th March 2022 that Iran was “calling it retaliation for an Israeli strike in Syria that killed two members of its Revolutionary Guard earlier last week.” Iranian propaganda continued by claiming that their strike, “appears to have taken a heavy toll on Zionists.” (the term given to Israel by the government of Tehran). Tasnim News (a semi-official news agency in Iran associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) went onto say, “the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has fired ten homegrown missiles with pinpoint accuracy in the attack on a strategic centre of Zionists in Erbil.” The news outlet went on to say, “the IRGC has used Fateh-class missiles in the operation.” A further comment said, “The centre hit by the missiles was a place where a remarkable number of Zionists gathered, and considering the number of people present in that base, the likelihood of the (Zionist) regime’s human toll is very high.” How a retaliatory strike on civilians and civilian buildings in Kurdistan had anything to do with the alleged killing of two IRGC guards is difficult to determine. 2024 On the 3rd January 2024 a terrorist attack occurred in Kerman, known in ancient times as the satrapy of Carmania, is a city in the Central District of Kerman County, Kerman province, Iran, and serves as the capital of the province, county and district. General Soleimani the former head of the IRGC-QF is buried in his hometown of Kerman. Soleimani was killed at Baghdad International airport by an American drone on the 3rd January 2020. He was believed to be behind a large number of attacks against the United States and Israel. There are thoughts that he was the orchestrator of the 2024 conflict between Israel and Hamas. The terrorist attack, labelled by Iranian state media outlets, happened on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death. Two explosive devices detonated in two different locations resulting in many deaths and injuries. Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the attack. Iran said, “Washington says USA and Israel had no role in terrorist attack in Kerman, Iran. Really? A fox smells its own lair first,” the Iranian president’s political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi wrote. ‘Both Israel and the United States rejected the accusations.’ On the 4th January 2024 the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the twin detonations in Kerman. In a statement posted on its affiliate Telegram channels, the terrorist group said two Daesh members had detonated their explosive belts in the crowd which had gathered at the cemetery in the city of Kerman on Wednesday for the anniversary of Soleimani's martyrdom. It was believed later that those responsible had had training in an Islamic State camp inside of Afghanistan. Undeterred by this announcement Iran said they were taking prompt ‘legal measure’ through the United Nations following the attack. Hossein Amir Abdollahian Iran’s foreign minister wrote, "Based on initial information obtained from official sources, the Foreign Ministry has begun [taking] its prompt legal and international measures through the United Nations." There was no announcement as to who they were taking legal action against. The following day Iran announced that they had arrested a number of suspects who had been involved in the attack. Interior minister Ahmad Vahidi told state TV (a government-controlled media outlet) “Our country’s capable intelligence agencies have found very good clues regarding elements involved in the terrorist explosions in Kerman and a section of those who had a role in this incident have been arrested,” he said without elaborating. Eventually eleven people were arrested for the incident. The Tehran Times stated that Interior minister Ahmad Vahidi said, “journalists and media outlets point out the growing amount of evidence pointing towards Israeli involvement in a terrorist attack that killed at least 84 civilians in the southeastern city of Kerman.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf the Iranian parliament speaker said he had linked the Kerman terrorist attack to the operations of Takfiri groups (explanations on various groups can be found at the end of this paper) in the region, the Zionist regime in Gaza, and the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan. He added that the perpetrators of this heinous act have no regard for the lives of women, children, and civilians when it comes to fulfilling their nefarious agendas. He characterized the killing of innocent civilians as a "common thread" that runs through the operations of Takfiri groups, the Zionist regime in Gaza, and the U.S. in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other countries. Iran's Vice President for Parliamentary Affairs, Mohammad Hosseini, has strongly asserted that a mere statement from the United States is insufficient to deny its involvement in the terrorist incident that occurred in Kerman. The vice president highlighted that despite statements from the U.S. Department of State disclaiming any role in the Kerman explosions, all indications point to their support for the terrorist group, as seen in the narratives of Daesh terrorist group who claimed responsibility for the incident. (The Tehran government of Iran considers the origins of the Islamic State lay firmly with the United States) The Islamic State Vs Israel The Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL or Da’esh) has consistently expressed extreme hostility towards Israel. Its views are rooted in a radical interpretation of Sunni Islam and an extremist interpretation of jihad. ISIS perceives Israel as an illegitimate state occupying what it considers to be Muslim land, particularly in reference to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. ISIS has called for the destruction of Israel and the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate that encompasses the entire Muslim world, including the territory currently occupied by Israel. The group sees itself as a vanguard in the fight against what it views as the enemies of Islam, including Israel and other entities it considers to be in opposition to its interpretation of Islamic law. The Islamic State has not carried out an orchestrated attack on Israel, though independent cells inspired by the terror group’s ideology have been arrested by Israeli security forces, several dozen Israeli Arabs are said to have been recruited by IS, and terrorists including Nashat Milhem (who murdered three Israelis in Tel Aviv, reported on the 31st October 2023) have identified with IS. According to a Times of Israel article, the Islamic State terror group published an article explaining why it does not attack Israel, arguing that the Palestinian issue should not get preferential treatment. The article argued that the Palestinian cause does not take precedence over any other jihadi struggle. The Islamic State argued that the apostate tyrants who rule the lands of Islam are graver infidels than the Jews, and war against them takes precedence over war against the original infidels. Its difficult to see how Iran verifies the Israel and Da’esh amalgamation and be able to conduct a joint operation against Iran. The Islamic State Vs the Islamic Republic of Iran ISIS views Iran through the lens of its sectarian ideology, which is rooted in an extremist interpretation of Sunni Islam. The majority of Muslims worldwide are Sunni, but Iran is predominantly Shia. ISIS considers Shia Muslims, including the Iranian government, as apostates and has often targeted Shia communities in its attacks. ISIS sees Iran as a rival and an adversary, not only due to sectarian differences but also because Iran has been involved in various regional conflicts where Da’esh operates. The group has condemned Iran's influence in Iraq and Syria, viewing it as interference in Sunni-majority areas. The Islamic State has been an opponent of Iran and has carried out several attacks in the country. In 2022, the group claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a Shia shrine in Iran that killed 15 people. The Islamic State argued that the apostate tyrants who rule the lands of Islam are graver infidels than the Jews. 15th January 2024 Kurdistan Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they attacked the “spy headquarters” of Israel in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, state media reported. “In response to the recent atrocities of the Zionist regime, causing the killing of commanders of the Guards and the Axis of Resistance ... one of the main Mossad espionage headquarters in Iraq’s Kurdistan region was destroyed with ballistic missiles,” the Guards said in a statement. At least four civilians were killed and six injured in the strikes on Irbil, the Kurdistan government’s security council said. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said Tehran respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries but at the same time was using its “legitimate and legal right to deter national security threats.” “After the enemy miscalculated by targeting the Islamic Republic, Iran retaliated with its high intelligence capability in a precise and targeted operation against the culprits’ headquarters.” That same day Iran launched missiles toward Iraq and Syria to defend its sovereignty. Iran’s Tasnim News announced that Iran Launched Retaliatory Missile Strikes on Mossad, Daesh Targets. The missile strike on the Mossad espionage base in Erbil in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq had been carried out in response to the Israeli assassination of a number of commanders of the IRGC and the resistance front, a statement said. General Seyed Razi Mousavi, a member of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps serving as a military adviser in Syria, was martyred in an Israeli airstrike in the residential neighbourhood of Zeinabiyah district in the suburbs of Damascus on the 25th December 2023. The statement also made reference to the twin attacks in Kerman. The Iranian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Nasser Kanaani described the IRGC’s missile strikes on a Mossad centre in Iraq’s Erbil and the bases of terrorists in Syria’s Idlib as Iran’s defence of its sovereignty and partial punishment for harming the country’s security. Syria is a long way from Iran. Kanaani went on, “The measure carried out (by the IRGC) was in line with the mighty defence of the country’s sovereignty and security and the fight against terrorism and was part of the Islamic Republic’s fair punishment for the violators of the country’s security,” he said. “The Islamic Republic of Iran always supports regional peace, stability and security and is committed to the observance of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. Meanwhile, it will not hesitate about exercising its legitimate and legal right to resort to deterrent action against the sources of threat to its national security and safeguard the security of its citizens and punish the criminals,” Kanaani added. He noted that while the enemies committed crimes against Iran with their miscalculations, Iran has identified the bases of criminals in a detailed and targeted operation with its great intelligence capabilities and has hit those targets with precision-strike missiles. “This was part of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s response to those acting against Iran’s national security and the safety of Iranian citizens,” the spokesman stated. Four people were killed in the attack on Erbil. Peshraw Dizayee, a well-known Kurdish businessman and the owner of Falcon Group which runs major projects such as Empire World, succumbed to his injuries. Dizayee, his youngest daughter, Saridar, and a housekeeper were killed. Karam Mikhail Saridar, an Iraqi businessman was also killed in the Iranian attack on Erbil and it was strongly rejected claims that he was involved in business with Israel. The IRGC claimed that "three Mossad bases" were targeted in Erbil. One rocket had fallen on the house of a senior Kurdish intelligence official and another on a Kurdish intelligence centre. Iran’s foreign minister on 17th January 2024 doubled down on claims that the deadly Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) strikes on Erbil targeted bases of the Israeli intelligence despite Iraqi and Kurdish authorities’ categorical denial of such claims. His Iraqi counterpart strongly denied the accusations and condemned Tehran’s “aggression”. Iran even produced unverified pictures of Dizayee with Mossad, and a member of the Kurdistan Freedom Party along with Israeli military personnel in an effort to substantiate their claim that he was a member of the Israeli spy team. Iraq recalled Ambassador Nassir Abdel Mohsen from Tehran. On the 18th January 2024 Iraq filed a complaint against Iran at the UN Security Council over Iranian ‘aggression’. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that Tehran had shared intelligence with Iraq about what it said were activities of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Iran has said its Revolutionary Guards attacked Israel's "spy HQ" in Iraq in the city of Erbil. Iraq denied that there was any such spy centre in the country. What happened in Erbil “had to do with the elements and agenda of the Mossad of the Israeli regime,” Amirabdollahian said. Another casualty of the Erbil attack was a Dutch infant, a baby of less than one year old who was killed in the “Mossad spy” attack by Iran. Dizayee’s daughter Zhina, who held Dutch nationality was days away from her first birthday. Two of the Tehran government-controlled news outlets denied any evidence of the Dutch infant. Tasnim news wrote that there is no evidence for the claim that a Dutch child has died in a missile strike that Iran launched against the base of Mossad in Iraq’s Erbil on Tuesday (16th January 2024), Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said. The Iranian foreign minister stated, “We do not have any evidence proving that a child was killed in the Mossad terrorist headquarters in northern Iraq, but we draw the attention of the Dutch government to the genocide and massacre of thousands of Palestinian women and children in Gaza.” Fars News Agency (The Fars News Agency is a news agency in Iran managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an armed wing loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian dismissed Amsterdam’s claim over the death of a Dutch baby in an attack by Tehran on Erbil in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. In a phone call with his Dutch counterpart Hanke Bruins Slot on the 19th January 2024, Amir Abdollahian said a missile strike by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) on Erbil was conducted on the grounds of legitimate defence and in line with international law. Abdollahian finished the conversation with his Dutch counterpart by saying, “he also urged Amsterdam to take appropriate and effective measures to fight terrorism.” Iran Attacks Pakistan Tasnim News on the 16th January 2024 announced that the Islamic Republic had launched ‘precision missiles and drone attacks at locations over the border in Pakistan. They claimed that their targets were members of a terrorist group Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jeysh al-Adl). According to reports obtained by the Tasnim news agency, these bases were specifically targeted and successfully demolished by a combination of missile and drone attacks. In mid-December, the notorious Jaish al-Adl (known in Iran as Jaish al-Dhulm) terrorist group had stormed a police station in Sistan and Balouchestan province’s city of Rask, southeast of Iran, which resulted in the death of 11 Iranian Police officers. After the attack the Republic of Pakistan authorities stated that the Iranian attack had killed two children and injured three girls. They also strongly condemned the attack describing it as an “unprovoked violation” of Pakistan’s airspace. Pakistan’s foreign ministry said “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences,” it warned, adding that “the responsibility for the consequences will lie squarely with Iran.” Pakistan recalled its envoy from Tehran in response. Tasnim News claimed in a statement from Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian that “the retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Pakistani soil on Tuesday night have not harmed any Pakistani nationals, but have targeted the elements of an Iranian terrorist group, known as Jaish al-Adl.” Amirabdollahian described the strike as a retaliatory response to the operation that Jaish al-Adl terrorists carried out against a Police headquarters in Iran’s Rask that killed 11 members of the Iranian security forces on the 15th December 2023. He added and underlined that no Pakistani citizen has been targeted in the raid against the terrorists. The attack was aimed at the Jaish al-Adl terrorist group, an Iranian group that has taken shelter in Pakistan. The foreign minister reaffirmed Iran’s respect for the sovereignty of Pakistan, but made it clear that the Islamic Republic won’t allow anyone to play with its security. 18th January 2024 The Arab News reported on the 18th January 2024 that Pakistan had retaliated against the Islamic Republic of Iran’s attack on its sovereign territory by targeting separatist Baloch militants. Tehran demanded an explanation. “A number of terrorists were killed during the intelligence-based operation,” Pakistan’s foreign ministry said, describing it as a “series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts.” Using the government of Tehran’s own words Pakistan authorities said, “Pakistan fully respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the ministry added in its statement. “The sole objective of today’s act was in pursuit of Pakistan’s own security and national interest, which is paramount and cannot be compromised.” A Pakistani intelligence source said the strikes were carried out by military aircraft. “Our forces have conducted strikes to target Baloch militants inside Iran,” said the official in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. “The targeted militants belong to the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF),” he added, referring to the Baloch Liberation Front, which seeks independence for Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani, condemned the attack carried out by the Pakistani military on a location in a border region in the southeastern province of Sistan and Balouchestan. The spokesperson emphasized that to officially convey the protest and request an explanation from the Pakistani government, the diplomatic representative of this country in Tehran was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Islamic Republic of Iran backs down. Iran said on the 18th January 2024 that, “it will not allow “enemies” (a term often employed to reference the United States and Israel) to harm its relations with Pakistan, following the exchange of deadly strikes between the two neighbours on each other’s territories.” The statement defended Iran’s strikes in Pakistan as a “preventive” operation, saying Iranian forces had detected a “terrorist” group preparing to launch an attack on Iran from Pakistan. The Iranian statement appeared to signal a willingness on Tehran’s part to move on from this rare episode of heightened tension with Pakistan. Relations between Iran and Pakistan have been historically complex. Both countries have cooperated economically and formed alliances in a number of areas of mutual interest, such as fighting the drug trade along their border and combating the insurgency in the Balochistan region. However, the neighbours have also had tensions over the years, with both sides blaming the other for using their minorities as proxies for their own benefits. The Iranian ministry stated, “The Islamic Republic of Iran, while being committed to the policy of good neighbourliness and brotherhood between the two nations and two governments of Iran and Pakistan, does not allow foes to strain good and brotherly relations between the two countries.” Whilst the attacks on defenceless Kurds is one thing, the attack on a nuclear-armed country is another matter. The retaliation of the Pakistan authorities was fast and the government of Tehran probably did not think that it would happen. Their belief was that they would complain and summon ambassadors to voice their distaste and that nothing else would happen. Iran gambled on yet again breaching another countries sovereignty and then move on. The two neighbours have occasionally attempted to cooperate. But more frequently they have accused each other of sheltering militants who carry out deadly attacks on the other country. Relations Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Pakistan Although sharing 900-kilometre border, relations between the two countries have always been along the lines of distrust. Islamabad-based expert on security issues Syed Rifaat Hussain said “The Iranian calculus is rather complex. Perhaps Iran overplayed its hand. They thought Pakistan will absorb the strike and will show restraint, or at most, a verbal protest.” Professor Joshua White of international affairs and a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in the United States said that Iran and Pakistan have ample reasons to de-escalate after the “unusual strikes.” He added, “the reality is that both the governments deploy rhetoric about brotherhood when it suits them but are often suspicious of the other’s motives. This is a low-trust relationship, but neither Islamabad nor Tehran have much to gain from seeing tensions escalate.” Iranian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said on the 22nd January 2024 that “the relations between Iran and Pakistan are sturdy,” adding, “the ties between the two countries are friendly and brotherly, as they respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Attempted Suicide Reuters reported in March 2019 that there had been an attempt to assassinate a top Pakistani cleric in Karachi. Former sharia judge of the country's Supreme Court, Mufti Muhammad Taqi Usmani, was heading to a mosque to lead Friday prayers. At least four attackers were riding on two motorcycles and carried out the attempted assassination. Usmani was uninjured but his guard died. On the 21st January 2024 the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) in Pakistan's southwestern Sindh Province said that they had arrested Syed Mohammad Mehdi who they believed was involved in the Usmani attempted assassination. Mehdi was accused of being a member of the Zainebiyoun Brigade, a militant group allegedly backed by Iran. Khuram Waris, who heads the CTD in Karachi said that Mehdi is a Pakistani citizen who received training in a "neighbouring country." "He is a member of the Zainabiyoun Brigade. He was involved in many attacks, including the attack on Mufti Taqi Usmani in Karachi." The Zainebiyoun Brigade is a Shia Khomeinist militant group that has been actively engaged in the Syrian civil war. It was formed and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and operates under their command. The group draws recruits mainly from Shia Pakistanis living in Iran, with some also from Shia Muslim communities living in various regions of Pakistan. Yet again the hand of Tehran is seen in a neighbouring country. Conclusion Iran in the past has attacked countries with false accusations and who have been unable to retaliate. The Tehran government constantly makes reference to the deaths of women and children in the Israel conflict with Hamas while at the same time killing innocent females and children in attacks that Iran claims to be on alleged Israel targets. There is also the denial that another nationality was killed, a Dutch infant not even one year old, denying that there was no proof when clearly the Dutch government said that there was. That is appalling. Iran’s domestic murders are no different. In the recent demonstrations regarding the death of Mahsa Amini on the 16th September 2022 Iranian security forces shot and killed females and children. Those that they launch missiles and drones at do not stand a chance at retaliation. The Kurds for example, have no defences against Iranian military attacks and Iraq is riddled with politicians aligned to Iran. Even the Iraqi military is not exempt with elements loyal to Iran. However, on this occasion Iraq’s Prime Minister has complained to the United Nations and called the attacks on the Kurds “unacceptable” irrelevant of the reasons why. Whether the United Nations does anything about Iran or if Iran takes note, which is doubtful, it shows that those being bullied by Iran can fight back. Islamabad did with retaliatory strikes, using the same language and stating it was up to Iran if they wanted to escalate the scuffle. Iran backed down when faced with an opposition that could. Showing what bullies the Islamic Republic of Iran can be and there is a way of standing up to them. Iran will not stand up to the United States or directly confront Israel. They know if they do it will be their downfall. The revolutionary dream of their revolution will be left in tatters. But as long as countries do not stand up to them, they will continue to terrorise and intimidate. The only fight they can do is with their proxies. Question: How many major conflicts has the Islamic Republic of Iran been involved in and won since it came into being after 1979? Answer: None Additional Information Terrorist Groups Takfiri Groups A Takfiri group is a term used to describe a Muslim who accuses another Muslim of being an apostate, or infidel. This practice is considered a major forbidden act in Islamic jurisprudence, and is potentially a cause of strife and violence within the Muslim community. The term is often used to describe extremist groups that follow a strict interpretation of Islam, and are known for their violent tactics. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has drawn parallels between the modus operandi of the Daesh terror group and the Israeli regime, saying both entities are looking to take the lives of innocent civilians as they are unable to face their opponents on the battlefield. Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jeysh al-Adl) Jaysh al-Dhulm, also known as Jeysh al-Adl, is an armed militant group operating in the Sistan and Baluchestan province of Iran and the border regions with Pakistan. The group has been involved in various activities, including attacks on Iranian security forces and incidents of kidnapping. The group is composed mainly of ethnic Baloch militants and has been accused of having links to other militant organizations. The Iranian government considers the group to be a terrorist organization and has taken measures to counter its activities. While it might not have a well-defined and publicly articulated ideology, its activities are primarily focused on what it perceives as the rights and interests of the Baloch people in the region. The Baloch people, who primarily inhabit the Sistan and Baluchestan province in Iran, have at times expressed grievances related to perceived discrimination and marginalization. There have been reports and claims by activists that members of the Baloch community face economic, social, and political challenges, leading to a sense of dissatisfaction among some Baloch individuals. Some of the concerns raised by Baloch activists and human rights organizations include issues such as limited access to education and employment opportunities, underdevelopment in the region, and a sense of political marginalization. Additionally, there have been accusations of human rights abuses, including arbitrary arrests and mistreatment of individuals by security forces. Pakistan considers Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jeysh al-Adl) to be a terrorist group. The group has been designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the United States. The Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) is a militant organization that advocates for the rights and autonomy of the Baloch people, who primarily inhabit the border areas of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The specific ideology of the BLF, like many insurgent or separatist groups, tends to revolve around regional autonomy, cultural preservation, and addressing perceived injustices or marginalization of the Baloch people. The BLF has been involved in armed resistance against Pakistani security forces and has expressed grievances related to what it perceives as the economic exploitation of Balochistan's resources by the Pakistani government. While the BLF's official statements and publications may provide more detailed insights into their ideology, in general, Baloch nationalist groups often emphasize the following elements: Ethnic identity, political autonomy, economic rights and social justice. The group’s ideology is based on Marxism-Leninism and Baloch nationalism. The group has been designated as a terrorist group by Pakistan.
“Middle Eastern nations need to use their influence over regional actors to ensure the Gaza conflict is contained and prevent “an endless cycle of violence.” (7th January 2024, Arab News, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Middle east Tour) Peace in the Middle East: Food for Thought With so many countries with an ideology of removing Israel, they are, without a doubt fighting for their existence. There are many countries around the world demanding a ceasefire no more so than Muslim speaking countries in and around the Middle East. Unless those demanding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas can guarantee that nothing like the attack that occurred 7th October 2023 will ever happen against Israel in the future they will continue fighting. As it stands there are more countries against the victim than there are against the aggressors. The appeasement towards the main culprit, Iran, is evident as they continue to wreak havoc throughout the Middle East or West Asia with no one keeping them in check. The Arab world must take some blame for the current situation between the Palestinians and Israel. Nothing has been, nor would it, do anything to ensure a resolution between Israel, and Palestine was found. All the peace proposals that have been put forward have given a zero result hence todays problem. If any of those peace proposals had any significance then the war with Israel and Hamas would not be happening. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a long-standing issue, and many countries have attempted to broker peace between the two sides. However, there is no definitive answer to whether any Muslim country has offered a peace proposal that has worked. The Oslo Accords were signed in September 1993 by the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s Yasser Arafat and Israel’s Labour Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in Washington. The deal was a historic breakthrough as it meant that the PLO recognised the State of Israel for the first time, and Israel recognised the PLO as the representative of the Palestinians. It allowed for the self-administration of major Palestinian population areas by a new Palestinian Authority, led by Arafat, although the majority of the West Bank remained under joint or sole Israeli control. The interim period was supposed to build both mutual trust and Palestinian institutions. However, the process fell apart and major stumbling blocks remained. The difficult “final status” issues were not resolved by 1999, including the exact borders of a new Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees and their descendants, Israel’s settlements, and Israel’s security arrangements. Negotiations continued but ultimately failed. The Arab Peace Initiative, proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002, called for Israel to withdraw from the territories it occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem, in exchange for normalizing relations with Arab countries. The initiative was re-endorsed by the Arab League in 2007 and 2017, but it has not been implemented. In 1979, Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, followed by Jordan in 1994. However, the peace treaties have not led to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There have only been two peace treaties that have stood the test of time. The peace treaty between Israel and Egypt was called the Egypt–Israel peace treaty. It was signed in Washington, D.C., United States, on 26 March 1979, following the 1978 Camp David Accords. The treaty was signed by Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt, and Menachem Begin, Prime Minister of Israel, and witnessed by Jimmy Carter, President of the United States. The peace treaty between Israel and Jordan was signed on 26th October 1994. The treaty is formally known as the “Treaty of Peace between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.” It ended the state of war that had existed between the two countries since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War and established mutual diplomatic relations. The treaty also settled land and water disputes, provided for broad cooperation in tourism and trade, and obligated both countries to prevent their territory being used as a staging ground for military strikes by a third country. In summary, while some Muslim countries have offered peace proposals between Israel and the Palestinians, none of them have led to a resolution of the conflict. The Arab Peace Initiative, proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002, called for Israel to withdraw from the territories it occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem, in exchange for normalizing relations with Arab countries. The initiative was re-endorsed by the Arab League in 2007 and 2017, but it has not been implemented. Relationships Saudi Arabia has had strained relations with Hamas due to its ties with Iran. The Saudi’s are partly to blame. Whilst they want the war in Gaza to stop, they fail to address the common factor, Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia through negotiations using Oman and Iraq but mainly with the help of China signed an agreement in March 2023 to renew diplomatic relations after a seven year period of no diplomatic ties. If Arab countries had put as much into stopping the smuggling of weapons and other military logistics into Gaza and the West Bank as they do to blaming Israel for the current situation then this whole mess would have been sorted out a long time ago. Israel is blamed for the blockade of the Gaza Strip. But no other country wanted to assist and stop Iran attempting to smuggle weapons, ammunition and other equipment into the Gaza Strip which would upset the equilibrium in the area. Israel was not the only country involved with the blockade. Egypt was also responsible. Currently even a large number of press and media outlets refer to the conflict as the “Israel Gaza conflict.” They are incorrect. It is the Israel – Hamas conflict. Iran, the Palestine Islamic Jihad and Hamas have put the people of Gaza in the firing line with no respect for the ordinary Palestinian. The three are more than comfortable placing innocent civilians and structures to their own use and that is to turn the world against Israel by using propaganda. Remember, Israel did not choose the battle ground for this current conflict. Now with the Hamas – Israel conflict the Saudis do not want to upset the fragile agreement brokered by China. Whist Iran continues to boast of their new found relationship they are also the ones in the driving seat regarding the Hamas – Israel war. Iran is the lead vocal calling, for nations to stop supporting Israel by boycotting Israeli goods. They are also the lead voice telling others to rid the region of the United States and the United Kingdom. Iran claims that only regional countries can provide the security needed. Iran has the largest military force in the Middle East and is more than capable of overpowering any other military power with its drone and missile capabilities which have been left unchallenged. With a weakened United States presence in the Gulf Region Iran could then go the whole hog and produce at least one nuclear device giving it the overall capability to threaten any country putting any resistance to Iran being the overall power in the Region. Even though both Israel and the United States have pledged that Iran would never have ‘the bomb.’ The talks and agreement of 2015/16 gave the Obama administration the upper hand at the time of signing. The Trump administration withdrew from the agreement in 2018 after president trump believed the agreement should have gone further and including Iranian drone and missile capabilities and Iran’s use of their proxies in the region. Regional Actors who do not want Peace Hezbollah (The Party of God) – is supported by Syria and of course Iran who are an Asian country. Hezbollah is a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon. Hezbollah has been a long-time ally of the Ba’ath government of Syria, ruled by the Al-Assad family. Hezbollah has helped the Syrian Ba’ath government during the Syrian civil war in its fight against the Syrian opposition, which Hezbollah has described as a “plot to destroy its alliance with al-Assad against Israel.” According to the Institute for the Study of War, Iran and Syria have been the primary supporters of Hezbollah. The Palestinian Islamic jihad (PIJ) is primarily supported by Iran. The PIJ is a militant group founded with the goal of liberating Palestine through armed struggle and by appealing to the region’s Islamic heritage. Iran provides the group with financial aid, military assistance, and political backing. PIJ is considered a terrorist organization by several countries, including the United States, European Union, Israel, and others. While Iran is a key supporter, the level of support from other Middle Eastern countries varies, and some countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, view PIJ with suspicion due to regional rivalries and differing geopolitical interests. The Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, has also provided the group with a safe haven in Damascus. Saudi Arabia views the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) with suspicion mainly due to regional rivalries and geopolitical considerations. The Saudi government has historically aligned itself with other political actors and groups that share Sunni affiliations. PIJ, being a Shiite-affiliated organization and having close ties with Iran, runs counter to Saudi Arabia's interests in the region. Saudi Arabia has traditionally supported Palestinian groups that align more closely with Sunni interests, such as Fatah, which is led by the Palestinian Authority. These sectarian and geopolitical factors contribute to Saudi Arabia's scepticism and suspicion towards the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Fatah is a Palestinian nationalist and social democratic political party. It was founded in the late 1950s by Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas, and others. Fatah has had a strong involvement in revolutionary struggle in the past and has maintained a number of militant groups. However, unlike its rival Islamist faction Hamas, Fatah is no longer regarded as a terrorist organization by any government. Saudi Arabia has recently shifted its stance towards the Palestinian cause, including Hamas and the PIJ. The country has been aligning itself with US and Israeli positions that are hostile to the Palestinian cause. According to Middle East Eye, Saudi Arabia has put dozens of Hamas members and supporters on trial, which is a dangerous shift in its policy towards Hamas and Palestinians. The trials have started nearly a year after Riyadh launched a campaign of arrests targeting dozens of Hamas members and supporters, which included closing their companies, confiscating their money and prohibiting bank transfers. However, the reasons behind Saudi Arabia’s shift in policy towards PIJ are not clear. Hamas is a Palestinian Sunni Islamist militant group that currently governs the Gaza Strip. According to the US State Department, Hamas is supported by Iran and Turkey. Qatar is also known to have provided financial and political support to Hamas. Qatar is a key financial backer and ally of the Palestinian militant organization Hamas. Qatar has transferred more than $1.8 billion to Hamas. The current head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, has resided in Doha since 2016. Qatar has been called Hamas’ most important financial backer and foreign ally. It is important to note that Qatar has denied supporting Hamas’ political position and has stated that its policy is to help facilitate constructive engagement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Qatar’s involvement in negotiations with US enemies, hosting of Hamas leaders, and its role in facilitating military agreements with the US have been reported in the news. Syria has a long and complicated relationship with Hamas. Hamas’ origins lie in the trans-national Muslim Brotherhood group, which believes politics should be guided by religion and which undertakes social welfare and community activities, but also has an armed wing. Before the rift, Hamas had long kept a political base in Syria, receiving Damascus’ support in its campaign against Israel. However, the Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, has also provided the group with a safe haven in Damascus. Hamas are not short of funds. Turkey Turkey has been a staunch supporter of the Palestinians, including Hamas, for more than 20 years. The presidency of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began when Erdoğan took the oath of office on 28th August 2014. According to The Times of Israel, Turkey has a long and lasting relationship with Hamas. Turkey has allowed the terror group to keep an office in Istanbul for more than a decade and has kept in touch with Hamas leadership since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023. Turkey’s support for Hamas is also driven by President Erdogan’s ideological affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood which is where the main ideology of Hamas originated from. Turkey considers Hamas as a liberation and not a terrorist group. Turkish President Erdogan said, “Hamas is not a terrorist organization, it is a liberation group, ‘mujahideen’ waging a battle to protect its lands and people.” Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has slammed Israel for its ‘shameful methods’ with its war in Gaza. He fails to mention his countless attacks on innocent Kurds. Turkey hosts senior Hamas officials, including Saleh al-Arouri. Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh and former chief Khaled Meshal visit Turkey often. According to Israel's Shin Bet, Hamas has established a command post in Turkey. which it uses to recruit operatives and oversee operations in the Middle East. The Foundation for Defence of Democracies reported that in December 2023 Hamas leaders held a secret meeting in Turkey. The meeting included the deputy chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri, along with former Hamas chief Khaled Mashal and other high-ranking Hamas officials. According to the report, the officials discussed potential next steps in the war against Israel (Oct 23), potential involvement by the Lebanese, Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, and a possible new round of hostage releases. Turkey provides financial and logistical support to Hamas. The Turkish government has become a stalwart supporter of the Palestinian militant group. Senior Hamas officials, including Saleh al-Arouri (later killed in Lebanon on the 2nd January 2024), are based in Turkey. Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh and former chief Khaled Meshal visit Turkey often. The Times of Israel reported on the 14th September 2023 that Israel had intercepted 16 tons of chemicals used in rocket fuel headed to the Gaza Strip from Turkey. Authorities say the shipment of ammonium chloride was hidden in containers of plaster, discovered by customs officials at Ashdod port. Ammonium chloride is a dual-use chemical that Israel bars from Gaza due to its potential to be used to construct rockets. Hamas dismissed the find as “fabrication.” Clearly Turkey wants peace in the Middle East but has done nothing to prevent a conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Military Support Hamas, the PIJ and Hezbollah are supported by Iran especially when it comes to supplying weapons and or technology. Middle Eastern intelligence organisations must be aware of how weapons and ammunition are finding their way to these organisations but choose to do nothing. By doing nothing and allowing the Islamic Republic of Iran to supply weapons, training and ammunition to these groups they are inciting unrest, war and the killing of innocent civilians. There is a constant flow of intelligence and information that crosses between nations. If the west is aware of what is happening then those countries in the Middle East must also be aware. Ignorance is no excuse. The blockade of the Gaza Strip and Houthi shipping ports are all in place to attempt military logistics being smuggled into those respective locations. It’s all very well countries demanding the lifting of these blockades but unless those countries band together the militant organisations that are being supplied will continue to cause peaceful problems in the Middle East.” Interfering with the Affairs of Middle eastern Countries With the assistance of Iran from planning to funding, Hamas (and other proxies in the Region) were able to prepare for the inevitable confrontation with Israel. Iran is as much to blame as are those who chose to ignore the intelligence that they must have found over the years that Iran planned to use a proxy terrorist group to attack Israel. People have known for a long time that Hamas was building tunnels and that Iran was assisting them. The Islamic Republic of Iran has since it came to be in 1979 sworn to eradicate Israel and over the last four decades built up armies to surround Israel. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad movements to name three of the more prominent ones. Iran supports and funds these organisations for one reason and that is to fight Israel on behalf of the Tehran government so that they can achieve one of their main revolutionary goals. Those who have turned a blind eye to this knowledge are as guilty as any other. After all, if the west know of Iran’s malign activities so does Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Oman and the UAE. Turkey must also be included with these countries. They have dirty hands. Conclusion France’s foreign minister Catherine Colonna was not short when she spoke to the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian when she, “delivered a very clear message: the risk of regional conflagration has never been so great; Iran and its affiliates must immediately cease their destabilizing acts.” The one factor that everyone is failing to not just mention, but also address, is the main culprit in the destabilisation of the Middle east. The second point to be addressed are those who support and give funds to Hamas and other terrorist organisations in the Region because they are Muslim or Arab for, they also threaten peace in the Middle East. Acquiring peace in the Region will be long and complex with politicians and peace makers being in the forefront. But, the Nations of the Middle East, not the Islamic Republic of Iran who must be kept out of all negotiations, must show willingness for any initiative to work. Iran’s plan of ‘neighbourhood policy’ is a method of ‘divide and conquer.’ Encouraging countries in the Middle East to cease having friendly ties with the United States and Israel is nothing short of attempting to dictate who they can and cannot have bonds with. The United States must also shoulder some of the blame. From its ‘listening tours’ to its heads of state visits there will have been an exchange of intelligence. Currently there is still a great deal of support for terrorist organisations in the Middle East that nations must stop in order for peace to move forward. Unless the intelligence organisations of the Middle East support one another in putting a stop to the evil militias in the Region, war, unrest and any notion of peace will never get off the starting blocks. If they want a peaceful Region then they will have to do something about it and not just turn a blind eye to what is happening under their noses and in their own back yard. In order for peace to be achieved in the Middle East, Israel has to be included as it is an integral part of the Region. The other is to isolate and cease the Iranian interference within Middle Eastern countries. It would be a difficult road but one that should be made a priority in order to give those who live in the Region a decent way of life instead of hate. But for all that to happen, leaders, politicians and lawmakers need to sit down and talk. Who is the most Disruptive Actor in the Middle East, The Region, The Levent and/or West Asia?1/2/2024 Foreign hostages are “our guests.”
(Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida. Times of Israel, 16th October 2023) “About the peaceful citizens that were taken and that are now in Gaza, we treat them as guests.” “The civilians were taken as “a result of chaos.” (Hamas representative Moussa Abu Marzook. Al-Arabiya News, 28th October 2023) Introduction The horrific and violent assault that was conducted by the terrorist group Hamas against Israelis on the 7th October 1973 was undeniably an atrocity that the Israeli’s and the world would not forget. The world reeled at the fierce, brutal and cruel manner that the terrorists went about their carnage on many innocent lives. Hamas kidnapped over 200 people from approximately 22 countries including children as young as ten months old. Numbers still vary. Murdering approximately 1400 people and some in an unimaginable way was not enough. Hamas took hostages. Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri spoke to Al Jazeera and confirmed the group had a large number of Israeli captives – at the time Hamas did not give any numbers but said, there were enough to secure the release of all Palestinians prisoners. They would be used as bargaining chips at a later date. This was not the first time that Israel had faced a serious hostage crisis in its history. Previous Israeli Hostage Crisis’s In 1972 at the Munich Olympic games the Palestinian terrorist group Black September disguised as athletes forced their way into the Israeli Olympic living area and after murdering two Israeli athletes took another nine hostage. They demanded the release of 234 Palestinian prisoners who were being held in Israeli jails, plus the West German–imprisoned founders of the Red Army Faction, Andreas Baader and Ulrike Meinhof. The operation to secure the hostages release did not go well resulting in the death of all the hostages. Five terrorists were killed and the three remaining Black September terrorists were captured. In October 1972 sympathizers of the Black September Organization hijacked a Lufthansa flight. Their aim was to secure the release of the three terrorists captured after the Munich Olympic rescue disaster by threatening to blow the aircraft up if they were not set free. The terrorists were flown to Zagreb Airport and eventually on to Tripoli where they were released. The Israeli governments response to the deaths of their athletes was to send teams to track down and kill those who were involved in the terrorist murders of the Israel athletes. The campaign was known as Operation Wrath of God or Mivtza Za'am Ha'El. The Entebbe Raid. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – External Operations (PFLP-EO) and two Germans from the German Revolutionary Cells hijacked Air France Flight 139 on the 27th June 1976. The aircraft eventually ended up at Uganda’s Entebbe International Airport where the hijackers enjoyed support from the then president and dictator Idi Amin. The aircraft passengers consisted of mainly Jewish and Israeli a total of 242 people on board, excluding aircrew and cabin staff. The terrorist’s demands stated their objective were the release of 40 Palestinian and affiliated militants imprisoned in Israel as well as the release of 13 prisoners in four other countries. Non-Israeli hostages were released with 148 flown to Paris leaving ninety-four Israeli hostages left and twelve aircrew. The Israeli government instructed the military to release the hostages and a rescue operation was put in place. Israeli soldiers and aircraft were flown to Entebbe on the 4th July 1976 and successfully rescued 102 of the hostages with three being killed. Another had been was murdered (Dora Bloch, 74) in a hospital in Kampala. The current Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, older brother Lieutenant Colonel Yonatan (Yoni) Netanyahu was killed in the raid. Seven hijackers who were present died during the operation. The rescue raid was a success. 7th October 2023 Israeli Hostage Nightmare Hamas has its own guide for kidnapping and hostage taking. The guide is broken down into nine main headings, some, if not all maybe experienced: 1. The collection stages 2. Confinement and control within the location and its vicinity 3. Safety 4. Supply 5. Camouflage and hiding 6. Communication 7. Publicity 8. Negotiations 9. Emergency situations Those who had been taken (Collection Stage) would have suffered from what is known as “shock of capture.” A sudden and aggressive change after a huge traumatic event. Those that had been taken would be at their most vulnerable during this stage. Their mind would not have a chance to put up any defence’s and they would be in a state of shock. These first reactions to their capture would soon fade. This could take minutes or it could take a few hours, it depends on the individual and the type of environment they are in. Let us also bear in mind that there is a vast age difference within the hostages. The first phase any kidnapped victim has to endure is the initial capture. This would include rough handling, beating with fists or a weapon, and a blindfold or hood placed over the head to disorientate and block out some of their senses. Once in a safe area for the kidnappers, the victims would undergo a quick search to remove all of their possessions, most of which would be stolen. (Safety) Yocheved Lifshitz, aged 85 who was later released described the ordeal. “They killed and kidnapped both old and young with no distinction.” She was tied to a motorcycle and driven to Gaza. “As we rode, the motorcycle rider hit me with a wooden pole. They didn’t break my ribs, but it hurt me a lot in that area, making it difficult to breathe. They stole my watch and jewellery.” She was held at Abasan al-Kabira, near Be’eri kibbutz, and at another location she could not identify. “Eventually, we went underground and walked for kilometres in wet tunnels, for two or three hours in a spider web of tunnels. We reached a large hall. We were a group of 25 people, and they separated us according to which kibbutz we were from.” After that, I don’t know where I was taken.” (A feeling of disorientation). Guards fed the prisoners the same type of food they ate. A doctor visited daily and provided medication and treatment, including for a hostage injured in a motorbike crash, she said. “They were very concerned with hygiene and were worried about an outbreak of something. We had toilets which they cleaned every day.” Israeli Hostage Trauma The initial reaction of the new hostage would be confusion because of the sudden impact and unexpected violent nature as to what had just occurred, along with uncertainty as to what happens next. At some point, they would feel anger for allowing themselves to be placed in a vulnerable position. They would be in disbelief at what was happening to them. This falls under the category of “shock of capture” and “dislocation of expectations” (it will never happen to me). All victims will undergo the same or similar feelings. Once the captive is in their new location, one that may be temporary, they would start to be subjected to two types of pressure. One is “self-induced pressure” and the other would be “system induced pressure.” Both types will bring on mental demands and the slow realization that the desolation will start to take effect. John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, said that “no one knew, where they (the hostages) are and in what condition.” Kirby also said, “the White House does not know if they are being kept together, and whether they are being moved around.” This would have been a lesson Iran learned after the 1979 revolution and American hostages were held against their will for 444 days. When they were first captured, they were held in one location. President Carter authorized the American military to rescue the hostages in an operation known as “Operation Eagle Claw.” Regretfully, the operation failed but Iran realized the vulnerability of hostage rescue and moved the hostages so that they were held in smaller groups at different locations. Hamas would have been advised to not hold everyone at the same location. Self-induced pressures are feelings that are brought on by the hostage; their own thoughts feelings and actions. They will go through fear of the unknown. Fear of being killed: Will anyone know they have been taken? Fear of the environment such as hearing doors banging, keys jangling as the prisoner will be wondering if it is their turn to be killed, tortured or beaten. There will be thoughts of escape but, if captured with others, there will be fear of retribution against those who remain behind. A difficult decision to make and, if those who are with them are close friends, it makes matters worse. Later, if held in captivity for a long period with other prisoners, those feeling will also exist. If the hostages were or are being kept underground then this is an option unlikely to happen. If they are a leader or military, then feelings of failure and/or guilt will start to gnaw at them the leader that had led them into that situation in the first place. Although they may not realize it, the chances are that in a lot of cases the operation to kidnap someone has been pre-planned as was the case on the 7th October. They would feel guilty about any mistakes they had made. It would not matter how small or large they seemed, the leader or a single individual would analyse every move that had put them into that situation. There would be mistrust, boredom and loneliness, which play major psychological roles. Depression and despair would set in very quickly as they would not be in control of any of their actions. The captors would ensure that. A need for constant alertness would add to the captive’s distress, as they would attempt to stay one step in front of their captors. System induced pressures are those that are placed upon a captive by their kidnappers. They would ensure that the captive underwent severe discipline and would be punished for the slightest thing. This would be part of a conditioning phase, so the captive becomes reliant on those who are holding them prisoner. Their diet would be small and disgusting and, if lucky, be fed on scraps. The guards would get the better food and whatever was left, if any, would be fed to the prisoner. The effect would be starvation and illness, which would break down the will of the captive and also result in draconian weight loss. Within the Gaza Strip where everything has been cut off then it would be safe to imagine that food and drink would be rationed. Hamas, although stated that they have thought of every eventuality it’s doubtful that they would have stored sufficient food and water as no one would have known how long the captivity of the Hamas hostages would be. When Hamas planned and executed the attack on Israel, they would have known that there would have been a humanitarian problem. Confinement and enforced idleness would play a huge psychological factor, coupled with everything else that would leave the prisoner feeling as though they are losing the will to live. They would suffer from lack of sleep due to hunger pains and damp conditions, desolation and torment of the mind — having no news of the outside world and no knowledge of what is being done to secure their release. A very sensitive issue is rape, both male and female. Female captives have a tendency to accept that this will happen to them, but males do not give it a second thought but in this day and age it is more than a possibility. If held in a collective group, it is not the act that tends to upset the unfortunate victim but how they are treated by fellow prisoners when they return. There would be no hostage/captor bonding, as the terrorists would treat their prisoner like an animal, which detracts them from being looked upon as human beings. There would be pressure on the captors, especially if they keep up with the press. With the sound of bombs being dropped by aircraft or being fired by Israeli artillery even deep underground the sound would be heard and if close the vibrations would be felt from the detonation on impact. The captures would be in a similar position to their hostages. Not knowing if they will be killed by shells or bombs or found, killed or captured by Israeli soldiers at some point. The problem with this type of hostage taker is that should there be an attempt to rescue them there is no guaranteed good outcome. If the kidnappers are threatened, it is feasible that they may kill hostages prior to fleeing. It is possible that phases of the Stockholm Syndrome may occur. There are a few factors necessary for this bond to develop to your advantage. · Hostages and captors are held together. · Both captors and hostages share the same conditions. · Must not outwardly disagree with the captor’s viewpoints. · Share a common Bond. For this to happen the hostage must: · Pretend to like their captors. No matter what you actually feel towards them, you must show that you want to be their friend. You must overtly go about trying to befriend them. You must build up some kind of rapport with them. · Encourage your captors to like you. Use your friendliness to get them to like you as well. Make it a two-way thing. Video’s Hostages are often asked to make a video or talk on the radio, this can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand it shows that the hostage is still alive at the time of recording but it can also be used for propaganda purposes. Hamas aired the first video of captives on the 16th October 2023. It was a female showing footage of her receiving treatment for an arm injury. This was 10 days after the attack on Israel so Israeli authorities would have been unsure when the injury had happened. The woman spoke Hebrew and said that she was from central Israel and appeals for her release. The video would have been reassurance to the family for up to that point she was alive. The hostage was later identified as 21-year-old, Mia Schem. She told the camera that she was operated on for three hours and that “I’m being cared for, I’m getting medications. I’m only asking to be returned home as soon as possible, to my family, to my parents, to my siblings. Please get me out of here as soon as possible.” It was thought she had been singled out because she was a dual French-Israeli citizen. This would put pressure on the French and Israeli governments to stop the war against Hamas so that the hostages could be set free. Hamas was also keen to show the world that it had a humanitarian side to it. This would have been an attempt to counter the horrific murders from the 7th October 2023. The next video to be aired was on the 30th October 2023 after the Israeli military had now gone into the Gaza Strip on what appeared to be a its next phase of grappling with Hamas. The video clip was approximately 76 seconds long and titled, “Zionist detainees.” Zionists is a term that the Islamic Republic of Iran uses constantly when talking about Israel or Israeli’s. At first it was difficult to identify the three females in the clip. Sitting on plastic chairs against a white tile wall, one of the women urges Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree a prisoner exchange for the release of all captives. Speaking in Hebrew, she becomes very agitated and starts shouting, almost screaming by the end, as the other two sitting either side of her remain silent. Later the three females were identified as Yelena Trupanob, Danielle Aloni and Rimon Kirsht. Aloni was identified as the speaker. Aloni addressing an angry message to the Israeli prime minister. Accusing Netanyahu of failing to protect Israeli citizens during the deadly Hamas attack and failing to get them back home, she called for an agreement to secure their release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. “You were supposed to free all of us. You committed to free us all. But instead, we are carrying your political, security, military, diplomatic failure,” she said. This statement would have worked well for Hamas propaganda causes attempting to put pressure on the Israeli prime minister and would once again reassure the families of the ladies that at the time of recording they were still alive. There were most likely have been key words that she would have been coerced into saying. All it takes is one disgruntled hostage and they would be easily led into either making a confession or encouraged to rant on film for those who are holding them. Propaganda Propaganda is based on lies and disinformation. Hamas and the Islamic Republic of Iran have and are known to utilize propaganda as a means to shape public opinion and advance their political agendas. Propaganda by Hamas is primarily by use of foreign media which is an important tool in its arsenal as they will report anything and everything giving Hamas a huge beneficial leverage. Manipulating the press and media works well for Hamas’s as the world forgets about the atrocities that they caused which started this conflict and concentrates on the plight of the Palestinians which they would include Hamas in. Their hate for Israel and by use of cruel psychological propaganda attempting to influence any population to apply pressure on governments to instruct Israel to hold a ceasefire and release hostages. This would be seen in the ‘Days of Rage’ that Hamas and Iran are encouraging around the globe. Hamas would gain a reward of having Israel agree to a ceasefire. Two current examples are: On the 13th October 2003 Hamas said that thirteen hostages had been killed blaming their deaths on strikes on Gaza. Referring to claims that hostages have been killed in Israeli strikes, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said “There are many statements from Hamas, we will only report reliable information.” On the 26th October 2023 Hamas announced that Israeli strikes on Gaza have killed almost 50 of the hostages its militants seized in bloody cross-border attacks. The claim, like the other cannot be verified but Hamas military wing “Al-Qassam Brigades estimates that the number of Zionist prisoners who were killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of Zionist strikes and massacres has reached almost 50” Fars News (managed by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) released news that two hostages had been released. Judith Raanan and her daughter Natalie Raanan who were taken illegally were both American. Fars News claimed that Hamas had released them “for humanitarian reasons.” Heir release was put down too many days of talks between the Qatari government and Hamas. The choice of American may be put down to the United States bringing in more military assets into the Region. Palestinian Hostages The Israeli’s along with other nationalities are not the only ones being held hostage and risk being killed. Although the scenario is different, the ordinary Palestinian citizens were being held at gunpoint by the very people they had elected to govern them. On the 13th October 2023 the German Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said that “Hamas has taken the entire population of Gaza hostage.” She was correct as reports came out of Hamas stopping people from leaving the city which were published in open-source news outlets. In some cases Hamas placed large vehicles and cars across roads to stop Palestinians from leaving. Reuters on the 13th October 2023 reported, “Mosques broadcast messages telling Gaza Strip residents to stay put on Friday (13 Oct 23), in defiance of an Israeli military call for more than a million civilians to move south within 24 hours in the build-up to its expected ground offensive.” IDF spokesman Lt Col Jonathan Conricus said: 'Hamas is actively preventing civilians from leaving to go to the south. The Israeli Defence Force had warned those Palestinians, not Hamas, who lived in the north of the Gaza Strip to move south where it was safer. Hamas’s response was shocking. In response, Hamas told residents to stay in their homes: “Do not follow the propaganda evacuation instructions.” The group is known to try and force residents to ignore such notices given by the military. IDF spokesman Admiral Hagari said Hamas was responsible for any harm to civilians who do not evacuate. He added, “The Palestinian civilians in Gaza are not our enemies.” “We don’t assess them as such, and we don’t target them as such. We are trying to do the right thing.” The Israeli Defence Force has accused Hamas of using its own people as human shields to prevent Israeli forces from attacking areas where Hamas operates in its attack on Israel. Russia and Hamas Russia has been hosting high-ranking members of Hamas in Moscow and has defended its decision to do so, saying it is important to maintain ties with both sides in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The article also states that Russia has become a close ally of Iran and has ties to Hamas, but there is no evidence of Moscow’s direct involvement in Hamas’s attack on Israel. According to Al Jazeera, Putin may be interested in the new conflict between Israel and Hamas spreading all over the Middle East, distracting the West and undermining aid to Ukraine. Currently there is a small glitch in the relationship between Hamas and Russia. Hostages, in particular Russian hostages held by Hamas. Hamas’s master, the Islamic Republic of Iran, arrested a Russian journalist Yulia Yuzikon on the 4th October 2019 and was charged with cooperating with Israeli intelligence. Russia's foreign ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador regarding Yuzik's detention. Russian journalist Yulia Yuzik, was not charged with spying and was changed to a visa violation and her case was placed under a “quick review” it was announced on the 7th October 2019 three days later. Then six days after her arrest she was freed by the Iranian authorities. “As a result of joint efforts of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian Embassy in Tehran, the Iranian side made a decision on the release of Russian citizen Yulia Yuzik.,” it was announced. Iran and Russia have had close relations since the start of the Syrian revolution in 2011, as they both heavily support the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Present Day A delegation from Hamas led by Hamas' international relations chief Moussa Abu Marzouk visited Moscow on the 26th October 2023 for talks on the release of foreign hostages including Russian citizens from the enclave. The Russian Embassy reportedly said that 16 Russian citizens were killed as a result of Hamas' attack on Israel, while another eight are missing. Iran also had a representative Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani who was also visiting. Hamas officials in Moscow said they viewed all their hostages as Israelis. Al-Arabiya News wrote on the 28th October 2023 that “Hamas is trying to locate eight Russian-Israeli dual citizens among nearly 230 taken hostage during the Palestinian militants’ attack on Israel after Moscow’s request to free them, Russian news agencies reported Saturday.” It also reported, “From the Russian side, via the foreign ministry, we received a list of citizens that have dual citizenship,” senior Hamas representative Moussa Abu Marzook was cited as saying by the RIA Novosti news agency. “We are looking for those people... It is hard but we are looking. And when we find them, we will let them go.” “We are very attentive to this list and will process it carefully because we consider Russia to be a closest friend,” he said.” Not all hostages are classified as Israeli then! Prisoner Exchange Prisoner exchange. The last Israeli prisoner to be exchanged was Gilad Shalit who on the 25th June 2006, was captured by Hamas in a cross-border raid using tunnels under the Israeli border. Hamas held him captive for over five years until his release on 18th October 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange deal. The deal would see the release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in a staggered move over a period of months. Palestinian prisoners, including, Hamas said, more than 300 serving life terms for violent attacks, stoking security concerns in Israel. The release of 6,000 Palestinian prisoners for those captured on the 7th October 2023 would mean that they would probably re-enter the Hamas terrorist network and the whole war process would probably start all over again in the future. Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, spokesman Abu Obeida, on the 9th October 2023 said that they would kill a civilian hostage every time Israel’s military hit Gaza without warning. A clear threat to have the Israeli’s stop their bombardment of the city. “We announce that every targeting of our people who are safe in their homes without warning, we will regretfully meet with the execution of our enemy’s civilian hostages,” Obeida said. Then in the Tehran Times (which claims it is not a state-owned newspaper, rather it must be the voice of the oppressed people in the world), stated that “an official belonging to Hamas told British media that the Israeli hostages taken by the group were being treated in a “humane way,” and they would not be harmed. Conclusion Hamas clearly knew what it was doing on the 7th October 2023 when it entered Israel. It was to kill and capture with no thought as to who it would be but with the intent of causing as much disruption as possible. Their aim to take hostages of different genders and ages was to have them used as human shields, for bargaining purposes possibly to have a ceasefire when things became a little rough for Hamas and they saw themselves as being on the losing side, propaganda and/or the release of some 6,000 prisoners held in Israeli jails. It maybe for all those reasons cited. The thought of releasing a further six thousand Hamas terrorists would not be a path the Israelis would want to follow. Whatever the reason for their capture this has certainly plunged the Israelis and their government into an even worse hostage scenario than that of Munich or Entebbe. As the hostage situation unfolds more regarding those kidnapped will no doubt be released. If it is true that those that have allegedly been killed by Israeli military action then hopefully when they recover the deceased a post-mortem will tell its own story. But for now, the world waits because that is what the hostage game is. Attempting to gain the upper hand or seeing what can be achieved without more loss of life. Paul Ashley (31 Oct 23) On the 12 Oct 23 in the Tehran Times the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, stated, that nobody seeks Iran’s “permission to open a new front” against Israel, saying everything is “dependent” on the Zionist regime’s moves. Iran constantly refers to the Israelis as Zionists. He went on to say, “Officials of certain countries in contact with us ask about a possible opening of new (war) fronts in the region. We tell them that our clear-cut response about future possibilities is that everything is dependent on the moves of the Zionist regime in Gaza,” Iran’s foreign minister remarked. There is a speculation that the powerful Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement, resistance forces in Iraq known as Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and Ansarallah forces in Yemen may enter the war against Israel if the Tel Aviv continues to massacre the Palestinian people indiscriminately in the Gaza Strip.
Israels bombardment on Hamas has come under strict scrutiny. The Israeli government have given Palestinians opportunities to leave the north of the Gaza Strip and move south out of harms way. “The Palestinian civilians in Gaza are not our enemies,” an Israeli military spokesman, John Conricus, said. “We don’t assess them as such, and we don’t target them as such. We are trying to do the right thing.” This comment stresses that Israel is there to fight Hamas not the Palestinians. Hamas had other ideas and urged ordinary Palestinians to stay in their homes. Hamas needs human shields. As a ruling body inside the Gaza Strip, they have done little to help the population living there. Rather than spend funds on improving the life of the Palestinians they have spent it on cement. Shoring up tunnels to be used to attack Israel takes money. A British newspaper wrote the underground network in Gaza now branches dozens of miles through the Gaza Strip reaching the towns of Khan Younis, Jabalia, and the Shati refugee camp. They also stretch into Israel. Hamas whose terrorist ideology is to destroy Israel does not take into account the population. The news outlet continued, the tunnels, which are believed to have cost between $30 million (£21.3 million) and $90 million (£63.9 million) to build, are extremely difficult to detect from the air. Some of the three dozen tunnels built since the end of the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict are estimated to have cost $3 million (£2.13 million). The tunnels are reinforced with concrete to protect them from airstrikes and from caving in. The vicious cycle of attacking Israel through tunnels, having them destroyed and rebuilding them does not come from what Gaza exports, its believed that Iran funds Hamas with $100 million each year. The money comes from funds that are to improve life for the Palestinians. Human shields would be used in order to stop Israel from retaliating. Another method would be when the ground war starts the deaths of those who chose not to go south would be used to apply pressure on the international community to decry Israels ground war. The pressure would be used to make Israel halt its campaign of putting a stop to Hamas once and for all. Hamas are using its own population to carry through its ideology of destroying Israel. Nothing more. While Israel’s response will tragically include the loss of innocent Palestinian lives, this will be the result of Hamas using their homes and hospitals as launching pads, while not providing bomb shelters or other means of protection. Stated the Jerusalem Post. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said, “Hamas is now barricading itself behind more innocent people and is using them as a shield in Gaza.” She continued, “Hamas has taken the entire population of Gaza hostage,” also adding, “Their tunnels, their weapons depots and command centres are deliberately located in residential buildings, supermarkets and universities. Maybe even in hospitals.” The Palestinian envoy to the United Nations described Israels use of munitions in the Gaza Strip as “nothing less than genocidal.” Iran calls the siege a war crime and urged the United Nations to stop what they deem as ‘atrocities’ and it was their responsibly “to end the Zionist regime’s heinous crimes and acts of aggression against Palestinian people.” Iran has not denounced the indiscriminate attack on Israel nor the taking of hostages instead they refer to the attack as “self-defence” by the Palestinians. Iran decries war crimes and those conducting the crimes against the ‘Palestinian people’ stating they will be brought to account. It is in the wording. Iran does not use the term Hamas but Palestinian. Likewise, it does not refer to them as terrorists or freedom fighters. They refer to such groups such as Hamas. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and others as ‘resistance fighters’ or the ‘axis of resistance.’ Iran funds them all. Possible ‘New Front’ In September 2021 Al Arabiya published a report that originated in Iran whereby they boasted of having six armies. “A prominent Iranian military commander said that his country has “six armies outside its borders that work for it.” Gholam Ali Rashid, the commander of what is known as “the headquarters of Khatam al-Anbiya”, said in statements carried by the Iranian Mehr Agency, that Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force, announced, three months before his death, that he had organized six armies outside Iranian territory. He added that Soleimani was supported by the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the General Staff of the Army. He added that these armies have ideological tendencies, live outside Iran, and their mission is to defend Tehran against any attack, according to his claim. In his statements, he also said that these armies include the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Hamas and Jihad movements, the regime forces in Syria, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Houthi militia in Yemen, stressing that these forces represent a deterrent force for Iran. “Although the report states ‘for the protection of Iran’ it does not say that they could be used in a different modus operandi. Hadi Al-Amiri on the 10 Oct 23, a powerful Iraqi politician close to Iran and a key figure in the cross-party alliance backing Iraq’s government, has threatened to target US interests if Washington intervenes to support Israel in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Amiri leads the Badr Organization, a Shi’ite political group supported by Iran that makes up a big part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the state paramilitary organization that contains many Iran-backed factions. “If they intervene, we would intervene...if the Americans intervened openly in this conflict...we will consider all American targets legitimate … and we will not hesitate to target it,” On the same day that Hadi Al-Amiri made his statement senior Iraqi and Yemeni leaders aligned with Iran and in charge of heavily armed groups have threatened to target US interests if Washington intervenes to support Israel in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah has not as yet dedicated itself to joining in the fight against Israel. The Lebanese government is weak and is separate to Hezbollah who control the south of Lebanon. But on the 9 Oct 23 Al-Arabiya reported that Iran was ‘urging’ Hezbollah to prepare for conflict. Hezbollah has been cautiously firing mortars and rockets into Israel but nothing on a large scale. This could be for two reasons. Firstly, to show support for Hamas, secondly to test the Israeli reactions. Israel would have to deploy troops and assets in that area should Hezbollah escalate its intentions and to counter these attacks. Its possible that should the attacks become more severe the Americans would offer assistance to israel. Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem stated on the 13 Oct 23 “that the group would not be swayed by calls for it to stay on the sidelines of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, saying the party was “fully ready” to contribute to the fighting.” “The behind-the-scenes calls with us by great powers, Arab countries, envoys of the United Nations, directly and indirectly telling us not to interfere will have no effect,” he told supporters gathered in the southern Beirut suburb. Tasmin News (semi-official news agency in Iran associated with the IRGC) on the 14 Oct 23 reported that “Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement Seyed Hassan Nasrallah conveyed to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian the robust state of the resistance and its preparedness for any scenarios regarding recent developments in Palestine.” “Hezbollah knows its duties perfectly well. We are prepared and ready, fully ready, and we are following developments moment by moment,” Qassem said. Iran and other proxies that they use have been warned by the United States not to become involved. The United States and other countries in the Region do not want to the conflict to escalate. Iran has other ideas and its proxies also appear to have other thoughts. Iran warned on the 14 Oct 23 that if Israel’s “war crimes and genocide” are not halted immediately, “the situation could spiral out of control & ricochet far-reaching consequences,” Tehran’s mission to the United Nations in New York posted on X. The Tehran Times reported that Amir Abdollahian also met with some senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad officials in Beirut as he continued his visit to Lebanon recently. They discussed the latest developments in Palestine. The Palestinian officials noted that Operation Al-Aqsa Storm was a natural reaction of the Palestinian nation’s resistance to the daily and continuous crimes of the Zionist regime, specifically the extremist cabinet of Netanyahu against Palestinians and the regime’s frequent desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque. They also said despite the war crimes by the usurping Zionist regime against the oppressed people of Gaza, resistance groups have stood up strongly against the regime’s aggression, with their morale, motivation and capability being high as they press ahead down the path of resistance. Amir Abdollahian, for his part, said the Palestinian people have an inalienable right to resistance against occupation. He added that just as some Western officials have admitted the Al-Aqsa Storm proved that Palestine is alive and despite some claims the Palestinian issue will not slip into oblivion due to normalization deals between some countries and the Zionist regime. Clear reference to the Abrahams Accord and the talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. United States President Joe Biden said on the 7 Oct 23 the United States was ready to offer “all appropriate means of support” to Israel after an attack from Hamas and warned “any other party hostile to Israel” not to seek advantage. The following day in a televised speech, Biden issued a blunt warning. “Israel has a right to defend itself and its people — full stop,” he said. “Let me say this as clearly as I can. This is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching.” Now we have a chicken and egg syndrome. Which will come first. Should Hezbollah, or any other Iranian proxy decide that when Israel commences its ground war and Hamas become the losers will Hezbollah decide to strike therefore opening up a second front? Or through intelligence gained that an Iranian proxy decides to attack Israel and the United States stops the attack will others then use that as an excuse to join the conflict? Is there a pre-arranged event that will spark a regional war? Indications are that there is a real time possibility of a second front opening. Iran possibly thinks it is in a position to be the grand master of manipulation. It has numerous proxies at hand to move as chess pieces across the Middle East chess board and strong allies in Russia and China. Iran will be clever. There will be no paper or communication trial as every order will have been carried out by word of mouth or through a courier. Osama Bin Laden used couriers to relay his directions and not by modern communication methods as he feared being caught by the United States using tracking methods to find where he was hidden. During the attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Iranian backed Houthi’s, Iran would constantly deny that they were behind the attacks. Just before diplomatic relations were restored between the two countries the missiles and drones launched into Saudi Arabia stopped. Nikki Halley the United States ambassador at the time to the United Nations gave proof that the aerial bombardment against the Saudi’s were carried out by Iranian supplied and manufactured drones. The Iranians denied that they belonged to them and that anyone can put markings on a drone in Farsi and claim they came from Iran. The war in Ukraine instigated by Russia has seen numerous drones used in the conflict. There is a track record of Russia using drones supplied by Iran. Iran denies that they are their weapons. Iran learnt from the accusations aimed at them by the Americans regarding how easy it was to supply evidence that Iran can and do supply drones to its allies. This time they requested proof by demanding the Ukraine, America and other nations accusing them of supplying the drones for documentation when they were supplied to Russia. Iran knows that they will not find any such transactions. The point is they learnt from a past mistake. The current conflict between Hamas and Israel may well turn this into a Middle East nightmare. Reports of attempting to stop it overflowing into other countries by the United States and its Arab allies are constantly ongoing. In the case of Hamas where Iran denies any involvement meetings would have taken place but no paper trail by way of communications would be used. A total comms blackout. Everything done by way of word of mouth from one party to another or the use of couriers. This attack would have been too big to chance anything getting out prematurely. Iran’s main news outlets continuously talk about others getting involved. The Iranian foreign minister said any action by Hezbollah would amount to an earthquake for the Zionist regime and “the responsibility for any expansion of war in the region lies with the Zionist regime.” No matter how the conflict between Hamas and Israel ends, Iran will walk away claiming that they had nothing to do with the attack. One of their favourite sayings is 'baseless'. Any claims made that Iran was behind the 7 Oct 23 attack will be as they say, "baseless." What they have not thought about is that although Osama Bin laden used couriers, he still got caught. The planning of Hamas’s invasion of Israel was probably in the pipe line for some time, what it needed was an intention and motive to initiate the attack. Some have wondered for some time how Iran could derail the talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia which had been showing signs of progress. With reports that an agreement was close Iran needed a diversion in order to derail the process. The planning of the attack and the launch would need the go ahead from someone, not Hamas, but a master. An Iranian master, someone with a higher authority possibly the Supreme Leader or head of the IRGC-QF.
The Islamic Republic of Iran does not have a policy whereby it confronts its foes; it allows others to do this for them. The Supreme Leader, It is worth remembering that a lot of Sunni Islam countries are on the side of the Palestinian cause. This attack may also be an attempt to break the Abrahams Accord which Iran also opposes. If the Saudis and Israel sign an agreement it would isolate Iran from one of its common goals and that is to destroy Israel. Saudi Arabia so far has kept a tight lid on the conflict and its views, the only statement so far is by the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan who has said that his country, “condemns targeting of civilians in Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” The whole tactic has been a clever well thought out plan, coordinated and operated with an aim of destroying Israel as per the prophecies in the Iranian press for over six months and the Iranian boast of a new world order. On numerous occasions, high profile figures in the Iranian military have stated that the fall o Iran was imminent. The attack on Israel by Hamas may seem extreme but Iran does not concern itself with these details as it suits its revolutionary founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini revolutionary ideology requirements which is to destroy Israel. Hamas on its own could never came up with a plan as strong as this as well as all the logistics that would have to be in place in order to conduct an assault on Israel on the scale it has shown. In the past they have been content to allow the PIJ to fire rockets and shoot at Israel in its attempt to fight against Israel. There is more at stake here than just the Palestinian cause. A senior US official in a conference call has said that ‘they currently do not see any hands of Iran being involved and will look into it’. It appears by the comment that they have their suspicions. The United States President has also warned those who are outside not to think about getting involved, it was a strong and stern warning. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said part of the motivation for Hamas’ latest attack on Israel may have been disrupting a potential normalizing of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties All Iran has done is gloat, party and claim that Israel is about to fall because of its treatment of the Palestinians and the current infighting which also may have given “now, the time is right” attitude. Like everything, timing is everything. Iran does not want to lose its new found friend Saudi Arabia as Iran has been making plans on both their behalf for the future of the region. That cannot be derailed at any cost. Iran is also using this opportunity and attempt to gain support by claiming Israel is responsible for regional instability. This accusation is not new, but this is an ideal opportunity to bring to the fore and point it out and challenge in order to gain more support against Israel. The Iranian propaganda machines. On the 9 Oct 23 the Wall Street Journal wrote that Iran had assisted in the planning of the attack since Aug 23, an accusation Iran denies. Fars News Agency on the Denial, blame moved elsewhere then divert back to Israel. There is also the UN part of the article heading to grasp the attention of the reader and to give it credibility. A common Iranian tactic especially when it comes to denying events. In order to discredit Israel and turn the Muslim world against Israel they had to include an Islamic facture hence why the name was picked as operation “Al-Aqsa Storm.” Hamas, along with others have accused Israel of desecrating the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound even creating incidents to draw the IDF in and claim propaganda. It brings in the Muslim world as it’s an Islamic holy name and site. Iran has and does attempt to amalgamate the Islamic world (Sunni and Shia) against Israel. What better way than to have Israel retaliate to a major incursion and by enabling them to use extreme force. Iran and Hamas are close partners. Where did Hamas get the money, logistics, weapons and ammunition in such large quantities? Turkey managed to find 16 tons of logistics early in the year. You don’t put that type of quantity in the boot of a car to smuggle through a checkpoint. The other question to ask regarding this point is how much had been smuggled in before and after that and not been found? There has to be a smuggling network in place that Iran can smuggle everything that is required for a large-scale attack. Hamas which is a designated terrorist organisation is limited as to where it obtains its financial aid. However, some of the ways Hamas receives its funding is by; state sponsors, charitable organisations, fundraising, extortion and taxes, tunnel trade, criminal activities, local and external donors. Its exports are few but rely on agriculture and fishing, small scale manufacturing and very little else. Certainly not sufficient to finance a major conflict. Specifics of financial aid provided by Iran to Hamas in Gaza are often not disclosed publicly, as these transactions typically occur covertly. However, it has been alleged by various sources that Iran has provided financial support to Hamas over the years. This support may include: direct funding, financial assistance to families of fighters and funding social services. There have been allegations that Iran provides various forms of military support to Hamas, this support is thought to include: Training and technical assistance, weapons and ammunition and political support. A smuggling route sometimes starts in Iran, Yemen and the Sudan into the Gaza Strip Should other terrorist groups such as Hezbollah become involved then this will escalate the conflict from outside of Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has fired several rockets at the Israeli Shebaa Farm, Israel retaliated and nothing more occurred, although Hezbollah stated that this was to show Hamas it stood with them. If Hezbollah were to join then it would be a free for all as there would be no command-and-control structure between the two factions and would be easily defeated without some form of hierarchal leadership. According to Al-Arabiya News who ran a report stating, “Iran is urging Lebanon’s Hezbollah to prepare for potential conflict with Israel, the Times of Israel cited a senior Israeli government source as saying. he source also said that Israel has gathered intelligence suggesting Iran influenced Hamas in carrying out its recent attack on Israel. However, should Hezbollah become involved the Americans may become drawn in as the IDF would be fighting on two fronts. This would also mean that the conflict would not stay in one area of the Middle East but escalate into other countries. This attack may well back fire on Iran, if it is responsible. Israel will be more than ever wanting a peace settlement with the Saudi’s which will go against everything Iran has strived for by sanctioning Hamas to attack Israel. Iran is the puppet master; the puppets are the proxies. The Iranian President, Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, has been holding phone calls with leaders of what Iran calls Resistance Movements over the Palestinians’ military operation. The most difficult stage in all of this will be the release of those who have been captured and held hostage, not all are Israeli’s, some are different nationalities and Americans. The Biden Administration has recently recovered from the release of five Americans from Iran without having to negotiate for hostages held by an Iran-backed terrorist group. In October 2011 it was announced that a prisoner swap had been agreed between Israel and Palestinian militants who had kidnapped an Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit after tunnelling into Israel from Gaza. The price for the release of one soldier was freedom for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including, Hamas said, more than 300 serving life terms for violent attacks. The serving Prime Minister at the time was Benjamin Netanyahu. Hamas with the assistance of Iran who are past masters as hostage negotiations will make this very difficult for Israel and other nations. It’s no secret that Iran blames Israel as one of the perpetrators for its woes at home. Israel gets the blame for many things. One was the demonstrations that ran after the death of Mahsa Amini the Kurdish female murdered by the Iranian morality police thugs. Iran has many problems at the moment with above 50% inflation and the population finding it difficult to put the staple food on the table. Different employment factions wanting a pay rise and better conditions as sanctions against Iran bite. The attack on Israel will be seen as a way in which the theocratic government of Iran attempts unite the country in the hope that the financial spotlight will be taken away from the Tehran government and placed on the Palestinian fight against the Israelis. In Conclusion Although there is no current direct evidence that the Islamic Republic of Iran is involved with the Palestinian attack on Israel, but there is circumstantial evidence present that Iran does have an involvement. It’s not the Palestinians that will gain from any of this but their masters who are miles away in Iran. Those Palestinians who die in the fighting leave behind families of loved ones who will not be coming home or able to earn a wage to place food on the table or play with their children. The Israeli’s who will have died fighting will also face a similar fate in that aspect. The winners will be the Iranians. Sat in West Asia away from the conflict. No one currently knows regarding the thoughts of Saudi Arabia on the conflict, nor how they will react after the struggle has finished. Saudi Arabia wants to assist the Palestinians by being in talks with Israel to bring a better life and closure to a long problem. There will be a lot of fallout from this war. Hostage negotiations, Israel’s security apparatus and leadership. Relations with Iran should the finger of blame be proven. Although Iran is extremely clever when it comes to hiding away from the facts but the truth is, they are not as smart as they think they are and somewhere there will be a direct link. Iran may have had the idea of attempting to make the prospects better for Gaza and its inhabitants but in reality, they will have made it worse. Iran accuses Israel of being the major problem in the Middle East whereas in truth there’s only one problem in the Middle East and that is from a country that is situated in West Asia and interfering in the affairs of the Middle Eastern countries claiming it’s the saviour of the Muslim faith. Remove Iran from the Region will not solve every problem in that part of the world but it will certainly go a long way in bringing peace and stability without outside interference. The world needs to wake up and realise that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not a friend, a benign neighbour, but a deadly, corrupt regime whose sole purpose is to ensure the world follows its ideology no matter how long it takes or what it has to do to achieve it. The signing of the agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia on the 10 Mar 23 after seven years of severed relations was welcomed by many, thanks to the intervention of China and assistance of Oman and Iraq. The future could be bright should Iran play its part in the agreement. This will be not the end of the problems in the Middle East. Iran in the past has boasted that it is the greatest supporter and provider of security for the Region. Several questions have evolved. Firstly, is the Iran-Saudi deal a way of Iran disengaging in Yemen without losing face? Due to sanctions imposed on Iran the money that it spent on ‘supporting’ the Yemeni Houthi’s has not achieved anything whereas the finances could be channelled to fund Iran’s other proxies. At the moment Iran has agreed to stop arming the Houthi’s. The signs are according to the Iranian Tasnimne news that Iran supports efforts for a peace plan. Although this has been said before only for the U.S., Saudi or the British Navy to stop a Dhow with smuggled weapons heading for Yemen. The possibility of a treaty between the factions in Yemen will be dependent on support. A member of the Houthis’ political wing Abdulwahab al-Mahbashi said on the 12 Mar 23 that the agreement has “nothing to do with them as they are not ‘subordinate’ to Tehran.” The Saudi's may have security on its side but will Iran still have the influence? Secondly, there is still Tehran’s influence, support and arming of the Palestinian enclaves, Syria and Hezbollah. Security in the region is a lot more complicated than just the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing to respect one another and exchanging ambassadors. Thirdly, the agreement does not include the Iranian 'peaceful' nuclear program which is enriching uranium at a level well above the requirement for a passive program. In order to pursue Iranian ideology of dominance it needs to make sacrifices to achieve its long game. Tehran may believe that when the British left the Region in the 1960’s and security in the Middle East was assigned to Riyadh and Tehran that they will again restart that security process. But the agreement was with Iran and Saudi Arabia, not the Islamic Republic of Iran, different ideologies. Iran is already starting to boast that it has a security deal with Iraq, is about to swap ambassadors with Bahrain who also ceased relations with Iran in 2016 and that the building of bridges with the UAE. In the long run this may be an attempt by Iran to divide the nations and support them by attempting to place a wedge between Arabian countries, the United States and Israel’s Abraham Accord. China played a significant role in assisting with the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The final question; if it fails where would that leave China and the Islamic Republic of Iran?
The recent UAV attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military facility at Isfahan on the 28 Jan 23 is giving the Iranians a chance to mock whoever conducted the attack. Several American news outlets have cited Israel for the operation but as usual the Israelis have not, nor are they likely to, comment on the incident. The Iranian Tehran Times wrote that the episode was another “unsuccessful attack” and that Israel had “failed to achieve its goals.” They quoted an unnamed Israel media source that allegedly stated, “Israeli media portrayed the attack as successful, something that stands in stark contrast to the reality on the ground.” The Islamic State claim that the attack allegedly caused minor damage, but this statement has not been verified by any outside source. The news outlet went on to say that the Americans were involved even though the United States distanced itself from the incident. The Iranians included them when describing “Israel’s failed adventure.” However, was the attack a failed venture? If Israel did carry out the latest drone attack on Israfan then this was a clever warning to Iran. To coordinate and fly three UAVs from Israel to the near centre of Iran is an exceptional achievement and sends a message to the Iranians. If it was Israel then not only can they fly their drones across the possible airspaces of Jordon, Saudi Arabia and Iraq undetected, the drones were also flown across the Arabian Gulf into Iranian airspace and onto their target. Iranian propaganda outlets state that at least one drone was destroyed in the attack, meaning two others got through and made it to the target before being terminated. A distance of approximately 1,586 Km or 986 miles with a flight time for a commercial aircraft of 2 hours and 22 minutes. Quite an achievement when you consider the distance and weather conditions that the drones flew. This should be quite a shock to the Iranians who boast of having the best drone service in the world. The alleged Israeli operation says a great deal about the Iranian anti-aircraft defence systems which should have detected the UAV presence as soon as the drones neared the airspace of Iran. This could have been another goal, to test the Iranian air radar. Iranian media would have you believe that Israel failed in its goals whatever they were. The question is, did they?
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"The Europeans think that the Iranian people and the IRGC’s efforts to protect their values is a form of terrorism," (Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami) Iran in a Flat Spin over EU Proposal to Place IRGC on European Terrorist List The French Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the 10 Jan 23 that it had not ruled out terming the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation after the Germany Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock tweeted on the 9 Jan 23 that “listing the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization is politically important and makes sense.” Prior to these German and French thoughts, the British government had announced in the early days of 2023 that they were officially going to declare the IRGC a “terrorist group.” At the time the Iranian press-propaganda outlets were more concerned with the anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani who was killed at Baghdad International airport on the 3 Jan 20 than this thought. Security Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Europe Because of the geographical proximity of Europe and the Islamic Republic of Iran relations between the two have been reasonable over the years. A number of European countries have had a good relationship with the Islamic Republic (formerly Persia) for centuries. The European perspective was greatly enhanced before, during and after the implementation of the JCPOA agreement in 2016. President Trumps withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and the reimplemented sanctions caused problems for Iran. Iran attempted to split Europe and the United States in order to stop sanctions from being reimposed. Iran’s attempt failed and the United States and Europe sided with one another. The security concerns of the United States, the Middle East and Europe vary considerably due to their global and geographical location along with the threat against each region. The greatest direct threat from Iran is in the Middle East, second is to the United States and its interests in the Region and lastly against Europe. Iran over the years has attempted to create and focus on dialogue with Europe in an attempt to bring the two closer together. The Islamic Republic of Iran Army According to Article 143 of the Iranian Constitution, the task of the Iranian Army is to safeguard the independence and territorial integrity of the country, as well as the order of the Islamic Republic. The army is made up of mainly conscripts but remains loyal to the regime. The ‘Iranian Army remains a main element of Iran’s defence posture’. The army’s leadership claims it has restructured its fighting capabilities and resources in order to fight in conventional as well as asymmetric theatres, the army continues to play an important role in securing borders as well confronting what the regime considers to be a Kurdish insurgency emanating from Iraq as well as a homegrown terrorist threat in the region of Sistan va Baluchistan. The regular army remains Iran’s first line of defence and continues to underwrite the country’s national security, checking both threats from within and outside of the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has its origins as an ideological militia but now takes a greater role in nearly all aspects of Iranian politics and society. The IRGC on the European List 2023 Europe has proposed placing the IRGC on a Foreign Terrorist List (FTL) along with other sanctions. Some sanctions by Europe in the past have targeted individuals from the IRGC but not the entire organisation. When placing an individual or individuals on the sanction list it would be easy for those people to get around the restrictions by having someone else do whatever needed to be done, but an entire organisation is different matter and different to get round. Some countries have argued that by placing the IRGC on a list they are targeting a group that is an integral part of the countries defence capabilities. However, as we have seen the Iranian army is the forefront of Iran’s military capabilities with the IRGC, on paper, playing a second choice. Due to historic and current affairs in Iran the European Union are believing to place the entire organisation on the European Terrorist List. It appears that the two main reasons for discussing and implementing the terrorist classification on the IRGC comes in two main motives. Firstly, the IRGC’s involvement in the heavy-handed crackdown on current demonstrations in the country since the death of the Kurdish female Mahsa Amini (16 Sep 22). This involves the lack of human rights and the execution of demonstrators without a fair trial. Secondly with Iran selling of drones (which it denies), technology and the use of military “advisors” to the illegal war which Russia inflicted on the Ukrainian people. Thus, involving Europe. A recent open source outlet has high-lighted Iran’s involvement in attempting to gain access to the Balkans and join the arms race by proposing the selling of drones to what is becoming an area of unrest. The IRGC is the “main military actor involved in the proliferation of Iran’s indigenous drone program” according to the outlet. The Balkans being on the eastern flank of NATO and Europe. Should the IRGC manage to export drones or military assistance to this area it would cause a huge problem for NATO, America and Europe. Iran has no qualms regarding the selling of its military equipment and has recently attempted to court those countries in the Balkans. Currently some western technology has been found in drones supplied by the IRGC. The problem is being addressed. The Islamic Republic of Iran and its News Outlets/Propaganda Outlets Go into a frenzy The Tehran Times, Tasnimne, Fars News Agency along with many other major outlets have all gone into a flat-spin over the European announcement that the EU is proposing to place the IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist list. Tasnimne accused the European Union of Political weakness and being led by the United States and warned of a “fallout” if Europe was to proceed. The United States placed the IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist List in 2019. The Tehran Times stated that if the European Union was to proceed then it would “shoot itself in the foot” but gave no clear explanation as to how this would happen. In another article by the same outlet the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said that Iran would retaliate. The outcome would blow up years of diplomacy with Iran and set Iran and the West on a path of confrontation, (he did not mention Iran siding with Russia). The outlet also stated that it would put the JCPOA revival in jeopardy. The agreement had been placed on the bottom of a very long list due to Iranian demands. Priorities were now Iranian human rights and supplying of drones to the Russians. Fars news agency warned Europe “to avoid repeating past mistakes.” Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami slammed the European Parliament’s resolution on labelling the IRGC as a foreign terror organization, and further warned the Europeans that they will have to suffer consequences in case of repeating past mistakes. He added that, “The IRGC chief underlined that Europe owes its security to the IRGC, because if it were not for the endeavours made by the IRGC, particularly the IRGC Quds Force and late commander Lt. Gen. Soleimani, the scourge of terrorism created by the US would have engulfed Europeans. "Had it not been for the IRGC’s struggles, the flames of terrorism fuelled by Daesh, an American product, would have spread to Europe and destroyed its security," he underscored. In another statement the IRGC Commander said, "Europe has experienced two world wars but has not learned from its past mistakes and thinks that such resolutions can shake the IRGC." He continued, "The Europeans think that the Iranian people and the IRGC’s efforts to protect their values is a form of terrorism." The Shah declared Iran (Persia) in World War Two as neutral at the beginning of the long conflict. Events later did place Persia/Iran on the side of the axis powers. Iran has also said that it would retaliate against Europe by placing numerous European armies on an Iranian “Terrorist List.” Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf who is himself a former commander of the Guards air force said that Iran “recognize the armies of the European countries... as terrorist groups.” What this would actually achieve is something to wonder about but later in another statement they said that European interests and armies would be shown no differential, meaning European armies would be treated the same as American interests in the Region. Iran announced on the 23 Apr 19 that it had placed the American CENTCOM on a terrorist list. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on the 9 Apr 19 declared the IRGC and its Quds Force a terrorist organisation. Achieving nothing except attempting to show the people of Iran that it cannot be stepped on without retaliating. Another point to consider is how the IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for European security when it is well known that Iran is the Worlds sponsor of terrorism. The list is endless of the terrorist incidents that the Iranians have been involved in and not just in Europe, the Middle East but globally. In a closed Iranian parliamentary session on the 22 Jan 23 Abolfazl Amouei, the spokesman for the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee said, “On the other hand, we are looking to establish a mechanism in the country for cases of human rights violations. Actions against international law, including killing and genocide, and cases in which Europeans had a history, should be registered and prosecuted in international authorities. These cases are also foreseen in this plan.” They were going to come up with a three point plan as a response to Europe should they designate the IRGC as a terrorist group. The question to be asked here is, “What is Iran afraid of if the IRGC is placed on the European FTL?” Reasons for not placing Iran’s IRGC on a Terrorist List The reasons are few and the argument is one sided. The Islamic State informs its population and the world that the IRGC has and is fighting terrorism. As there is no definitive universal definition of terrorism each country has its own interpretation. In the Iranian definition its anyone who stands in the way of exporting their revolutionary ideas. These are first and foremost who it deems as terrorist enemies: The United States, the United Kingdom, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the main countries who stand against Iran and are deemed by the theocratic government as terrorists. Iran claims that its IRGC was the only country and organisation to fight and defeat the Islamic State who it opposed. Foreign Affairs Minister of Iran Javad Zarif described ISIL as an "ideological sibling" to Al-Qaeda, adding "the so-called Islamic State, is neither Islamic nor a state." Iran designated the group as a terrorist organisation through IRGC-led news outlets. The Iranians have for some time accused the United States of being responsible for the formation of the Islamic State or Da’esh as it is also known. This is purely a propaganda statement. The Islamic State, Da’esh was condemned for human rights abuses and executions. The United States led the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) against the Islamic State (Da’esh) and comprised over thirty countries to degrade and destroy the organisation. The Islamic State of Iraq contrary to its statement did not destroy Da’esh alone. Da’esh was a major threat to the Middle East not Europe as Iran depicts. Europe had to assess if the Islamic State represented a direct and imminent threat to the EU, or just a potential risk for the future. Although Europe did not play a prominent role in the eradication of Da’esh it did play a significant role. Iran would do well to look at the reason why the Islamic State was condemned. The Islamic Republic of Iran has hinted it may withdraw itself from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a form of retaliation against the European decision. Iran was one of the original 62 signatories (1968) to the NPT which came into effect 1970, by 2020, 190 countries had signed up to the agreement. During the JCPOA renewal talks Iran has attempted to us the NPT agreement to gain its own way, a form of blackmail. Inspection teams from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had found three undeclared nuclear sites with uranium readings. Iran declared no knowledge of the sites, nor anything about the uranium readings or how they got there. The Islamic Republic blamed Israel for sabotaging the sites amongst other theories. Iran has attempted to bully and intimidate Europe, the United States in gaining concessions with the JCPOA agreement. Now it’s the turn of the European parliament, with Iran threatening to remove themselves from the NPT agreement completely if Europe goes ahead with the IRGC designation. The issue between the IRGC being placed on a Foreign Terrorist List and Iran removing itself from the NPT are separate subjects. Iran is attempting to make them one issue as it has done with threats involving the resurrection of the 2016 JCPOA agreement. The Iranians have accused Europe, the U.S. Germany, France, the U.K. even Israel of plotting against Iran and making the subjects of the three sites and the JCPOA as political issues. They have also accused those involved from Europe, the UK and the U.S. as being “Iranophobic.” A term used by Iran when it cannot get what it wants. There are already problems with monitoring the Iranian ‘peaceful’ nuclear program. Iran removed the safe guards form various sites that were linked to the original JCPOA agreement. Now they are using the Iranian nuclear program as a political football in an attempt to have the Europeans to rescind their plan to place the IRGC on a terrorist list. Wrap-Up The Islamic Republic of Iran’s theocratic leadership has been hurt and is lashing out in every direction it can including accusing Europe of falling into a trap set by the Americans and Israel. Numerous military commanders and political leaders have voiced their opinions along with some wild accusations that are not correct. Iran will, and does, push boundaries. They claim under the constitution that the IRGC is an integral part of the of the constitution saying that “According to the constitution, the IRGC is an official institution of Iran”, and this institution should not be declared a terrorist organization by European countries claimed IRGC chief commander General Hossein Salami. He forgets to mention that the IRGC is also the exporter of terrorism to proxy groups, the assassination of Israeli’s abroad and Iranians living in exile around the world. He forgets to mention that the IRGC is the main actor in the proliferation of drones which Iran attempts to gain markets around the world and lately the Balkans. The EU has at long last taken the rightful decision to state that the IRGC is a terrorist organisation putting its decision in line with the United States. The United Kingdom is also considering declaring the IRGC as a terrorist organisation after the execution of the Iran/British dual national Alireza Akbari. His execution was announced on the 14 Jan 23. In the closed session where Abolfazl Amouei mentions digging up human rights violations, he may want to look at the current president of Iran who is wanted for questioning about the killing of thousands in 1998. President Raisi was referred to in one open source outlet as “Iran’s death committee president.” Iran is and has been suffering financially for some time with inflation above 50%. With more sanctions likely to bring greater problems Iranian money markets responded prematurely and the exchange rate fell. This will likely continue if the announcement of the designation which along with previous sanctions occur and will place a further strain on the Iranian government. Iran had recently announced (16 Jan 23) that it was to give the IRGC a financial monetary allocation of $3 billion in the national budget, representing a 28 percent increase on last year. Iran’s regular army had its budget increased by 36 percent to around $1.22 billion, and the police budget will increase by 44 percent to $1.55 billion. The intelligence ministry has received a 52 percent increase, approximately $500 million, while prison funding has increased by 55 percent, or $230 million. These pay increases show where the Iranian government priorities lie. The motto of the Islamic Republic of Iran should be, “Revolution before the people.” Iran states that the IRGC plays a vital role in the security in the region. Iran is an Asian country who likes to involve itself in Middle Eastern politics. The IRGC create, finances, give logistical assistance, train and guide proxies in the region to cause unrest. President Raisi has praised the IRGC and its fight against terrorism stating that “no other military force in the world has fought terrorism like the IRGC.” Meaning fighting against the Americans, the British the Saudi’s and Israel. Generally, the president is attempting to justify the IRGC to the Iranian population but is a tool of the revolution. The Islamic Republic cannot be seen to be the blame regarding the European action. Tasnimne news outlet stated on the 20 Jan 23 that, “In other words, Europe will officially declare that its forces would be a direct threat to the IRGC; this would indicate a clear meaning in the military and strategic framework. It means that the IRGC will now consider the military forces of these European countries as a threat to nations and geography of the region, just like as Daesh and CENTCOM.” The statement is a threat made against Europe through the Tasnim News Agency which is a semi-official news agency in Iran. It has links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On the 22 Jan 23 the Islamic Republic of Iran had a closed parliamentary session to discuss the IRGC on the European terrorist list and what their response would be once the announcement was made. It was conducted in order that all members could give their opinions and give a response to which they all agreed. The session was attended by Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and IRGC chief commander General Hossein Salami. President Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi also attended. He opened with, this action is a reaction against the insight and vigilance of the Iranian nation in thwarting the enemy's recent conspiracy and sedition to bring chaos to Iran.” He went on, “Both the military forces and the high political officials of the countries of the region and even the world recognizes the important and decisive role of the IRGC, the Quds Force and General Qassem Soleimani in the fight against terrorism in the region." There are those who would disagree with him. Sanctions Announcement The United States, United Kingdom and Europe 0n the 23 Jan 23 announced a new and fresh set of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Whilst the sanctions represented a reply to the “brutal repression” by the Iranian government ion response to the current demonstrations the Americans placed sanctions targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Cooperative Foundation, an economic conglomerate established by senior Guard officers to manage its investments. The UK imposed sanctions and an asset freeze on Iranian deputy prosecutor general Ahmad Fazelian, who the British foreign office said was responsible for an unfair judicial system that used the death penalty for political purposes, they also blacklisted others. The UK failed to designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Organisation. The EU imposed asset freezes and visa bans on 37 Iranian officials and groups, including the sports minister, Revolutionary Guard commanders in 12 regions of Iran, hard-line politicians, senior state media officials and the head of the so-called “morality police.” The 27-nation bloc failed to nominate the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation. In a video interview with the German politician Hannah Naumaan on the 23 Jan she explained that the EU had not dropped the idea of placing the IRGC on the FTL but was looking at doing so in the future. The politician said, “Some sanctions that come with naming someone as a terrorist organisation are already in place. We are already sanctioning the Revolutionary Guard because of the WMD that they are already developing. We are also individually sanctioning a number of the key players, in the Revolutionary Guard and at the moment we are working on legal pathways and working on political pathways so that we can finally name for what they are a terrorist organisation. But of the concrete sanctions they are already in place.” Meaning this issue has not gone away. The Iranian response was to impose its version of sanctions on the 25 Jan 23. They enforced sanctions on 34 individuals and entities from the European Union and Britain in reaction to similar measures taken against them. Iranian lawmaker, Jalal Rashidi Kouchi, stated, “that Iran’s response to the European Parliament’s resolution on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) caused the EU to back down on the IRGC listing.” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian wrote in the Tehran Times, saying “Branding the IRGC a ‘terrorist organization’ would be a colossal mistake on the part of the EU – a mistake Iran cannot be expected to ignore. Such a designation would encroach upon Iran’s sovereignty, flouting international law and the Charter of the United Nations. Such a serious escalation would further undermine Europe’s trustworthiness in matters related to international security and have profound implications for the interests of European countries in the Middle East region,” he wrote. “Therefore, it is of paramount importance that rationality prevails within the European foreign policy establishment to avert another crisis.” The FM, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, in the Tehran Times on the 20 Jan 23 was quoted as saying that the European parliament had “shot itself in the foot” when hearing about the European decision to place the IRGC on the European terrorist list. With their three-point plan to retaliate in the future against the Europeans the Iranians want to ensure the shoe is not on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s other foot. . Zahra Ershadi, Iran’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN (in a report by the Tehran Times on the 19 Nov 22) whilst addressing the UN General Assembly committee on the 17 Nov 22 stated that, “Iran once again has rejected the human rights resolution adopted by the United Nations, saying it was drafted based on “biased behaviour.” She went on to say, “First and foremost, the Islamic Republic of Iran categorically rejects and strongly condemns the draft resolution L-34 on the so-called situation of human rights in Iran in its entirety, which was drafted based on the Special Rapporteur’s flawed report, defective findings, and biased behaviour.” A further statement, “The sponsors of the resolution, who claim to be championing human rights in Iran, have a long record of blatant hypocrisy, double standards, and instrumentalization of human rights for their short-sighted agendas; and none of them are morally fit to preach on Iranians’ human rights, as their actions contradict their words. Looking simply at the resolution’s main sponsors, it appears that the criminal partners have reunited to make another display of sympathy for individuals whose rights they have violated. Such claims are obviously hypocritical, and the sponsors of the resolution were never truly worried about human rights in Iran.” She singled out “those involved include Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Israeli regime, and Germany.” Ershadi then went on to point out, “One thing they all have in common is brutality, callousness, arbitrary killing, genocide, and ethnic cleansing.” The Islamic Republic of Iran does like to cast up the past when it is attempting to justify its own actions and took this opportunity to do just that. She pointed to the unmarked mass graves of indigenous people discovered in Canada, the country that seriously pushed for the adoption of the resolution. “In Canada, the discovery of more than 1,300 unmarked graves at four residential schools has shocked the whole international community. You witness the systematic rape, murder, and killing of indigenous children on a large scale. The story with the so-called land of the free does not end here! Having turned into a safe haven for criminals, Canada has consistently refused to uphold its international obligation under the UN Convention Against Corruption to extradite those who’ve perpetrated crimes against the fundamental human rights of the Iranian people with impunity. It is indeed the land of the free, but only for the fugitive criminals!” “Accordingly,” Zahra Ershadi,added, “it has been standard practice for the United States to abuse such valued concepts as human rights to pursue its illegitimate political agenda. The United Kingdom, a so-called human rights champion, has a barbaric policy that caused millions of Iranians to perish during the Great Famine in 1919, and now discriminates against migrants and refugees based exclusively on their ethnicity, colour, and religion, sending those who are not white or of the same ethnic type as Europeans to Rwanda.” This is not the first occasion that Iran has attempted to move the spotlight from themselves and attempt to point it at another country in an effort to deploy the blame elsewhere. Zahra Ershadi commendable quote of, “It’s good to know that Islamic Republic of Iran does like to cast up the past” when it is attempting to justify its own actions and took this opportunity to do just that. It’s a shame it’s all one sided and lacks total truth.
The Persian famine of 1917 – 1919 (Not the Islamic Republic of Iran which had not come into existence at this stage) was a huge disaster of mass starvation and disease under the Qajar dynasty during World War One where Iran was a neutral player but occupied by the British, the Ottomans and the Russians. Whilst Zahra Ershadi likes to point out that the United Kingdom was present, she fails to mention the Ottomans (Turkey (Turkiye), Iran’s neighbour) and their current ally, Russia. Where she points out ethnicity, colour, and religion she again fails to mention that in the Islamic Republic of Iran is made up of Kurds, Baluchis and Azeris. Many of those who are not Persian (Iranian) face discrimination and live-in underdeveloped regions. In the past there have been protests about these conditions only to have their protests put down by the Iranian government using brutal techniques. In May 22 headlines covered a story about Canada’s past when it was revealed that unmarked graves containing the remains of 215 indigenous children had been found in the grounds of a past residential school in southern British Columbia. The school was established in 1890 under the Roman Catholic Church. This was the incident that Ershadi was referring to. In regards to the criminals who seek shelter in Canada she is referring to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, or MEK. Iran considers those who belong to the group as terrorists and Iran has constantly tried to kill or commit kidnapping of its members. Ottawa 20 Dec 12, the Canadian government in a Public Safety announcement that the “the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) should be removed” from their terrorist listing in line with the United States and the European Union. Canada lists the Islamic Republic of Iran’s IRGC-Qods Force as a terrorist organisation which was modified on the 25 Jun 21. In Oct 22 the Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau announced that Canada was to implement more sanctions against the Islamic Republic because of the Iranian regime’s “blatant disregard for human rights and human life.” On the 26 Nov 22 Canadian CBC News published an article “Iranian dissidents in Canada say they're being watched and under threat from the regime in Iran.” Iranians living in exile have concerns that members of the Iranian regime are now targeting Iranians residing in Canada. After a couple of weeks with the current demonstrations the Tehran Times produced an article on the 7 Oct 22 with the headline, “One Nation, One Flag” in a clear attempt to bring the country together. They accused western media outlets of “fanning the flames of protest.” This attempt by the Iranian propaganda machine failed. The Arab News carried an article making reference from Amnesty International the same day, “At least 82 Balochi protesters and bystanders killed in bloody crackdown in Iran.” Zahra Ershadi, remember, One Nation, One Flag. The Arab News on the 22 Dec 21 carried an article where it states, “The Iranian regime’s policy in Sistan and Balochistan, and for that matter in other provinces too, is based on racial discrimination, assimilation, linguistic discrimination, religious prejudice and inequality, brutal oppression, deprivation and exclusion of the people who are the majority in their own respective provinces and regions.” “One thing they all have in common is brutality, callousness, arbitrary killing, genocide, and ethnic cleansing.” It's very kind of her to mention this topic. In 1988 the Iranian authorities who were acting on behalf of the orders of the then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini executed thousands of political prisoners in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian authorities executed between 2,800 and 5,000 (numbers differ) prisoners in at least 32 cities in the country. Authorities interrogated prisoners about their political beliefs and categorized them according to the degree of their perceived loyalty to Iran’s rulers. According to Amnesty International, some of the questions posed by the committee included:
The Universal Declaration for Human Rights was adopted by the United Nations on the 10 Dec 1948. It was created because of the experiences of World War Two. The United Nations vowed to never allow those atrocities created during the war to be repeated. The charter with a road map was designed to guarantee the rights of every individual everywhere. There were 48 countries that voted in favour of the Declaration. Of those, Iran, United Kingdom, United States, France, Canada, Sweden, Syria and Venezuela were signatories. Freedom Index by Country 2022 Ratings The West United Kingdom 8.75 United States 8.73 Canada 8.85 France 8.34 Sweden 8.83 Germany 8.73 Iran and some of its Allies Venezuela 4.03 Iran 4.53 Syria 3.66 (The figures speak for themselves) Amnesty International – Amnesty International Report 2021/22: The state of the world’s human rights Germany was split after being held responsible for starting both World War One and Two. Because of its split into East being part of the USSR (German Democratic Republic (GDR)) and West (Federal Republic of Germany (FRG)) being controlled by the Allies Germany did not sign up to the agreement. The two countries amalgamated on the 3 Oct 90. The UDHR contained a number of provisions that contradicted the political and social order of the GDR as run by the Socialist Unity Party (SED). In the late 1980s, human rights and the UDHR became symbols of the democratic opposition. Between 1986 to 2009 Germany has ratified numerous treaties in regard to Human Rights. IRGC Pay Rise In order to keep the security forces on side the Islamic Republic announced on the 30 Oct 22 that “Iranian security forces will receive a 20 percent pay rise in this year’s amended budget.” The amendment was put forward by Qom representative Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani who sparked controversy on the 25 Oct 22 when he claimed on state television that the photo of Amini laying on a hospital bed was taken by two US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) spies. This could “flame the fires” by those who have been protesting in the past about price rises, inflation, failing to put the staple food on the table, the Teachers who have not received a pay rise after being promised or the lawyers who were promised by Raisi being head of the judiciary before becoming president. Due to sanctions being placed on the Regime there are Iranians who cannot afford to place the basics on their table and inflation being one of the highest on record. Iran prefers to put emphasis on its proxies and support the Houthi’s and open supermarkets in Venezuela than look after its own people. There have been numerous protests in Iran over promised pay, wage and pension increases that have not happened. Now with the announcement of a pay increase of 20% to the “security” personnel this will no doubt assist those who oppose the regime. Revolution before the population. Another Threat made against the Amini Protestors A Kurdish news outlet on the 24 Nov 22 announced that the Iranian top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hosseini Salami said that its tolerance with the protesters was at an end (again) and that the guards would “drown” anyone who violates the country’s national security. This is the third threat since the 22 Oct 22 when Iran’s deputy interior minister Majid Mirahmadi on the 22 Oct 22 stated that the ‘riots’ are in their ‘final days’. On the 29 Oct 22 The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Hossein Salami warned protesters (for the first time) that Saturday would be their last day of taking to the streets. “Do not come to the streets! Today is the last day of the riots,” Now there is a third threat and second from the IRGC commander. “Those who breach our national security … will be drowned.” He went on to say, “This is not sabre-rattling, I am a soldier and whatever I say I will put into plan. I warn the enemies, you are everywhere, your interests are everywhere, have mercy on yourself, you also need peace.” He was making reference to the IRGC’s heroic offensive against the Kurds on the Iran/Iraq border. Tasnimne announced that the heroic military had started a new round of attacks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq on the 22 Nov 22. The IRGC forces have fired missiles and flown suicide drones to hit the targets on the outskirts of Kirkuk. The IRGC has launched several rounds of military strikes on the positions of separatist groups in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region in the past two months. Kirkuk is in Iraq not the autonomous region of Kurdistan. Although the Kurds for years have been making a case for it to be returned back to them after it was subsumed into the Ottoman Empire. The distance from Kirkuk to the Iraq/Iran border is approximately 290 Km or 180 miles. Any drones that were launched at Kirkuk would have had to cross Iraqi airspace. The threats against the Kurds continue from the Iranian Regime. More Political Prisoners Detained On the 24 Nov 22 it was announced that Iran had arrested a British-Iranian dual-nationalist female for allegedly working with BBC and foreign media. At the time of writing there was no name or date of arrest was given. All that was given was that the arrest was made by the intelligence services and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran’s third city Isfahan. The Islamic Republic of Iran constantly tells the world that it does not use people for political-hostages whereas in reality most, if not all, dual nationalists are being held in appalling conditions to be used as and when Iran deems it necessary to gain a upper hand when it comes to conducting some form of negotiation. On the 22 Nov 22 Iran claimed to have arrested 40 foreigners without giving any details especially nationalities. In September, Tehran said nine Europeans had been arrested for their involvement in the protests. Australia, and the Netherlands confirmed that it had citizens detained in Iran, access denied as was consular access. Yemen 22 Nov 22 Yemen increases its air defence systems around its vital; oil terminal. Al-Dhabbah oil terminal on the Arabian Sea was subjected to a barrage of drones fired by the Houthi’s on the 21 Nov 22. This is not the first such attack on the legal government of Yemen since the ceasefire was broken by the Iranian backed Houthi’s in the beginning of Oct 22. Since the resumption of hostilities by the Houthis who in the past targeted oil and civilian targets in Saudi Arabia before the truce began, the Iranian backed Houthis are now focusing their attention on oil terminals at coastal ports which some have been Saudi tankers unloading their cargo. The flight times for drones launched by the Houthi’s is less than being launched into Saudi where the majority fail to reach their targets after being detected and neutralised. A Yemeni government official recently told Arab News that if the Houthis continued to strike oil tankers, it would be unable to pay public employees or support food imports. It is important to remember that on the 15 Nov 22 the United States Coast Guard ship USCGC John Scheuerman and guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans stopped and searched a Dhow which was found to have been a shipment of 100 tons of urea. The shipment was revealed to have originated in Iran and was being moved to Yemen. The fuel could be used for more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles. IAEA and Iran Because the IAEA have refused to drop the questions in regard to the uranium readings at three undeclared sites (Marivan, Varamin, and Turquzabad) which had not been declared by Iran as having hosted nuclear activities, Iran began enriching uranium to 60% at its Fordow site. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced the beginning of new nuclear activities on the 22 Nov 22. Iran has been under pressure for some time to answer questions regarding these three sites but so far have not come up with a credible answer. They have blamed the IAEA for being political, dancing to Zionist (Israel) and United States political agenda amongst other justifications for not answering. The Head of the IAEA has categorically told the Iranians that there is no political agenda either from the U.S nor Israel who are not a part of the negotiating team for the reimplementation of the 2015/16 Nuclear agreement. Iran has also accused Israel of being behind sabotage of the three sites. If the Iranian nuclear program is for peaceful purposes why keep using it to threaten others to get what you want? If it is for peaceful reasons why produce uranium way above the limit that you require for a “peaceful purpose” nuclear program? Muammar Gaddafi had ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons, to counter the alleged covert Israeli nuclear program. Gaddafi who came to power in 1969 ratified the NPT in 1975 and concluded the safeguards agreement with the IAEA in 1980. However, during the 1980’s Gaddafi was reportedly using illegal nuclear proliferation networks to start a nuclear weapons program to start developing WMD. Libya had managed to procure over 2,000 tons of lightly processed uranium from Niger and employed a Swiss nuclear engineer to commence the development of nuclear weapons. In December 2003 Gaddafi agreed to finish Libya’s nuclear weapons program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that the program had been in initial stages at the time. The nuclear program of Libya had been carried out even though Libya had been a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Libya is probably the reason why the IAEA, the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany want explanations for the Iranian undisclosed three sites which were found to have uranium readings. Attacks on the Kurds
The spineless attacks on the Kurds by Iran on the border between Iran and Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region continuous. The headline in the Iranian propaganda outlet Tasnim on the 14 Nov 22 by the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Ground Force Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour stated that the IRGC will hit more terrorist targets in the KRG. He also stated those targets that had been attacked since 28 Sep 22 would be attacked again. He claimed that the new strikes were a result of continuous warnings to the Baghdad government about the “need to expel and disarm the separatist group in northern Iraq.” Another case of bullying, attempting to oppress and intimidate and continue to be a tyrant to a neighbouring country knowing how difficult it is for not just the Kurds but the Iraqi government to respond to the largest military force its neighbour Iran has. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said, "The Islamic Republic does not expect to be threatened from the Iraqi Kurdistan Region in view of the two countries' excellent relations." “The central government (in Iraq) is responsible to (stamp out) these (terrorist) measures." The point regarding “excellent relations” raise’s an eyebrow, odd comments when you read the Iranian version of ‘excellent’ relations and compare it with the Iraqi statement on the attacks. Iraqi News stated from the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs that “This unilateral and hostile approach will not help in finding solutions leading to stability. Our stances previously indicated the danger of such a blatant aggression on Iraq’s sovereignty and the safety of its citizens. This attack reflects the continuous threat that will cause confusion and increase tension in the region,” the statement explained. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will take high-level diplomatic measures in this regard and will do what it takes to preserve Iraq’s sovereignty in a manner that enhances the safety of its people,” the statement added. Yet again the mighty military force of the Islamic Republic of Iran takes on people who cannot fight back. Their attacks with rockets, missiles and drones are what would be called unheroic by others, but to the Iranian military their forces are heroic. What for? For victimising those who are reportedly responsible for the current demonstrations in Iran. If you take a pinch of salt and remove one grain from that pinch you will have ‘an’ (singular) element of truth when the Iranian propaganda machine reports anything. The murder of Mahsa Amini by the morality police and the protests that have been on-going since the 16 Sep 22 are the only element of truth. That is the one grain. Amini was a Kurd. For all their military might and boasting to the innocent people of Iran their attacks on the Kurds are pusillanimous. On the 18 Nov 22 Iraqi News reported that a liquid gas explosion had occurred in the Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah killing, at the time of reporting, five people and injuring fifteen others. A spokesperson on the 19 Nov 22 for the Foreign Ministry of Iran expressed sympathy with Iraq over the explosion of a heating gas tank in the northern city of Sulaymaniyah that has killed at least “15 people” (one grain). On the one hand the Islamic State of Iran bombs, launches drones and missiles at innocent Kurds in the north of Iran on the Iraqi border, bragging about it; accuses the Kurds of inciting a revolution after Iranian morality police murder a Kurd for not wearing a headscarf correctly. Then an accident occurs killing several Kurdish people and the Iranians offers its condolences to the Kurds! A very good case of the Islamic Republic of Iran practising belittling hypocrisy. Then on the 19 Nov 22 a warning was delivered to Iraqi and Kurdish officials in Baghdad by Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani, who arrived in the capital on an unannounced two-day visit. Ghaani threatened Iraq with a ground military operation in the country’s north if the Iraqi army does not fortify the countries’ shared border against Kurdish opposition groups. A carrot and stick. Either you stop the Kurds from inciting demonstrations in Iran or we will invade. How nice of the Iranian Quds force commander to fly into a neighbouring country unannounced and issue a threat. Rock and a hard place for the Iraqi’s. The House that Ayatollah Khomeini Lived in On the 18 Oct 22 the Arab News reported that “Protestors burn down old home of Iran’s regime founder Ayatollah Khomeini.” Ayatollah Khomeini whose ideology continues to guide the Islamic Republic of Iran’s revolutionary ideals has been seen on social media outlets ablaze from an arson attack. The BBC verified the assault on the Ayatollah’s home which had been turned into museum commemorating his life a central point for the revolution. Regional authorities had denied there had been a violent incident saying, "the doors of the house of the late founder of the great revolution are open to the public." Other social outlets posted on-line showed people cheering as the fire broke out. The house, which belonged to Imam Khomeini (1902-1989), is a simple two-story structure (see opening picture). The late founder of the Islamic Revolution lived in the house from 1951 to 1964. The house was registered as a National Heritage Site in 1997. The Works of the Sources of Emulation Museum opened in the house in 2013. Iran and the Threat to Europe Iran’s “weapons proliferation” is a threat to Europe, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen warned on the 18 Nov 22. Is Europe now seeing that the Iranian threat is not just against those residing in the Middle East and the United States but that it now involves a threat on a much wider scale? The Europeans have dithered for a long time over the years because matters occurring in Iran and particularly elsewhere have not really been seen as a large threat to Europe. However, with the Iranian supplying drones to the Russians the European Union must now see that the threat from Iran poses a greater danger especially ‘if’ the conflict in the Ukraine should possibly expand. In Aug 20 When the United States lobbied for an indefinite extension on the 13-year-old Iranian arms embargo against the Islamic Republic of Iran which was due to expire in Oct 20, Russia and China were against the extension with Germany, France and the United Kingdom abstaining. The U.S.-sponsored resolution only received two ‘yes’s’ and required nine to carry the vote. The then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said, "The Security Council's failure to act decisively in defence of international peace and security is inexcusable." Iran made it clear that they had defeated the United States, but it would not go on a spending spree. In the Tehran Times on the 19 Oct 20 Defence Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami said, “that Iran will sell more weapons than it will purchase following the expiration of a UN arm embargo on Tehran that expired on the 18 Oct.” On the 23 Oct 20 according to Press TV,Government Spokesman Ali Rabi'ei said, the country that buys Iran’s weapons must pursue an ethical and responsible approach, refrain from warmongering, and want the weapons only for defence. “Iran will make the decision [to sell its weapons] in full compliance with international rules and framework,” he added. Iran says to sell weapons only for ‘defensive purposes.’ The selling of drones and missiles to Russia in an illegal war obviously defines Iran’s definition of “defensive purposes” which beggars the question when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program being for “peaceful purposes.” Proof of Iranian involvement in Yemen On the 15 Nov 22 the United States Coast Guard ship USCGC John Scheuerman and guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans stopped and searched a Dhow along a route in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel was found to be carrying bags of ammonium perchlorate hidden inside of what initially appeared to be a shipment of 100 tons of urea. Urea, a fertilizer, also can be used to manufacture explosives. The shipment was revealed to have originated in Iran and was being moved to Yemen. This is the first find of illegal activity since the ceasefire between the Houthi’s and the Yemen government came to an end by the Houthi’s. The Iranian-backed Houthi’s clarified this in a statement on the 1 Oct 22 when they said the ceasefire in Yemen is at “a dead end.” The U.S. Navy said the amount of ammonium perchlorate discovered could fuel more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles, the same weapons Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have used to target both forces allied to the country’s internationally recognized government and the Arab Coalition that supports them. At the disclosure of the find, Houthis could not be immediately reached for comment. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, on the 18 Nov 22 in the Islamic Republic of Iran Tasnimne News outlet they said, “The Iranian UN mission vehemently rejected the US Navy’s claims that Iran was trying to smuggle 70 tons of a missile fuel component hidden among bags of fertilizer aboard a ship bound for Yemen.” They later also stated, the diplomatic mission further said that “Iran is doing its utmost to restore the truce agreement and facilitate dialogue among Yemeni groups as soon as possible in order to establish peace and stability in Yemen,” Press TV reported.” The Iranians had not, nor have not, contributed to the failed ceasefire. More hypocrisy. State-Sponsored Intimidation On the 16 Nov 22 the head of the British intelligence agency said that they had thwarted at least ten occasions of Iranian plots to kill or kidnap people residing in the UK. Ken McCallum, Director General of the Security Service known as MI5 said, “At its sharpest this includes ambitions to kidnap or even kill British or UK-based individuals perceived as enemies of the regime,” He added, “We have seen at least 10 such potential threats since January alone.” Iranian officials were not immediately available for comment. Iran is well known for its attempts to silence others who stand up against the regime particularly in Europe and the United States. On the 19 Nov 22 Canada Eric Balsam, spokesman for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service “CSIS is actively investigating several threats to life emanating from the Islamic Republic of Iran based on credible intelligence.” No other details were given. British police have now deployed armed policemen around the offices of the Persian-language TV channel Iran International in response to the threats made against two of their journalists. The media channel has accused the Islamic State of Iran of “State-Sponsored Intimidation” a first for this new category and one that holds true. Iran and Israel Maritime War to Continue? On the 16 Nov 22 Israeli-controlled Eastern Pacific Shipping reported a drone strike against a tanker off of the coast of Oman. The vessel was attacked by a drone bearing extreme similarities to an Iranian Shahed-136 drone, the type that has been supplied to Russia for use in the Ukraine by Iran. Eastern Pacific Shipping, which manages the vessel, said it was investigating the incident involving the Pacific Zircon tanker approximately 150 miles off Oman and accountability of the crew had been done with no injuries or loss of life. The drone had struck the hull causing minor damage and no oil spill. The United States said they were confident that Iran was responsible for the attack. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. “Upon review of the available information, we are confident that Iran likely conducted this attack using a UAV, a lethal capability it is increasingly employing directly and via its proxies throughout the Middle East and proliferating to Russia for use in Ukraine.” All the Tasnimne News agency reported was “under the condition of anonymity, a West Asian defence official told The Associated Press that a drone carrying a bomb had attacked the oil ship Tuesday night off the coast of Oman.” The news outlet also said, “the attack has not yet been attributed to anyone.” On the 30 Jul 21 a Briton and a Romanian were killed after a ‘one way’ drone strike hit a petroleum products tanker managed by Israeli-owned Zodiac Maritime off of Oman’s coast. This was the last time that a merchant ship was attacked. It may be possible that we are about to see a resurgence of maritime attacks as Iran continues to suffer demonstrations in the country. By attacking maritime shipping Iran could be attempting to put pressure on nations to stop the press and media coverage of Iran’s internal problems. The last attack was after President Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement which saw incidents of this nature rise. Iran was in the frame for the last attack. Iranian Demonstrations Reports indicate that the current demonstrations and protests are causing the regime of the Islamic Republic big problems as they fail to contain them. Although on two different days and the issuing of two different statements a week apart from prominent officials claiming that the protesters days would be their last, nothing happened. The rallies continued despite the regimes attempt to intimidate those taking part. Reports of police stations being targeted along with statues; Mosques, clergy establishments and the dwellings of prominent people have continued unabated. Threats and intimidation are failing, the world’s press and media are on the hunt and the regime is having problems. State television Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned that Iran’s enemies my try to mobilise workers after failing to topple the regime. This may indicate that those who have complained about the lack of wages in the past are now filling the ranks of the protesters and that there have been several strikes where shop have closed, and people have not turned up for work. Protests spread into the vital energy sector last month but demonstrations by workers, which have partly addressed demands linked to pay and working conditions, have been limited. He may have had a premonition of an occurrence forty plus years ago when, “In 1979, a combination of mass protests and strikes by oil workers and bazaar merchants helped to sweep the clergy to power in Iran’s Islamic revolution.” Déjà vu? JCPOA Plan ‘B’
The stalemate for the revival of the 2016 JCPOA agreement is well documented after no move since Aug/Sep 22 with both sides blaming the other for not being flexible in the agreement revival. There are also the issue of drones being sent to Russia from Iran and the on-going demonstrations in Iran from females attempting to stand up to the Iranian regime. In the past both sides in the agreement attempted to sit down and find a way for diplomacy to be the sensible option. Iran insists that the United States guarantee that the Americans will not walk away from any agreement in the future should the Republicans come back into power. President Trump (Republican) walked away from the agreement in 2018. The Biden administration (Democrat) made the revival an election promise. It’s now November and the United States mid-term elections are due to be held on the 8 Nov 22. The election pledge to return to the JCPOA deal has not happened which will give the Republicans some ammunition. The Biden administration as always stated that if there was no return to the agreement then the military option was on the table along with a Plan B. No matter who asked there was never any sign of a hint as to what Plan B would be. It would now appear that Plan B was, and will be what people thought all along that it would be the military option if an agreement was not reached and the Iranians decide to build a nuclear weapon. The Plan B option was reiterated on the 31 Oct 22 when US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley said that the military option was still on the table if diplomacy failed in trying to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Nothing else was mentioned, certainly nothing to do with any Plan B option. The Americans see the biggest threat to the United States would be from the Islamic Republic of Iran should it have a nuclear device and the United States is being “consistent and necessary to promote our values and our national security interests.” (The Times of Israel 01 Nov 22). The Iranians are already dug in deep in Venezuela. In Aug 20 President Maduro said that it would be a good idea to look into purchasing Iranian missiles. The United States response to this suggestion was simple, "The transfer of long-range missiles from Iran to Venezuela is not acceptable to the United States and will not be tolerated or permitted," Elliott Abrams, US Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela said. He added, "We will make every effort to stop shipments of long-range missiles, and if somehow they get to Venezuela they will be eliminated there." If Iran was to build a nuclear device and get into Venezuela then a re-enactment of the of October 1962 could take place. However, in all these discussions in regards to the talks to halt Iran to have a nuclear device there are two camps or is it three? The first camp is the West (United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany) three members of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council along with Germany (+1), the second camp is made up of Iranian allies China and Russia, (the other two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council) the third camp being the Islamic Republic of Iran. With Iran being so close to the Middle East it would have been thoughtful to have several members from the Region on the negotiating table as Iran with a nuclear device would be a greater threat to the Middle East. This being the case until Iran managed to find a rocket or missile with the capability of reaching the shores of the United States. Israel has already stated on more than one occasion that it will strike the Islamic Republic of Iran should it even show a hint of building a nuclear device. So, the military option has always been there. If Israel was to start a direct action against Iran, then its allies would or should step up to the mark. Iran for all its boasting and rhetoric knows this and has to tread carefully. It may boast to its population that no one would dare attack it but in reality, Iran can only allow its proxies to hurt its enemies for to be confronted by an outside military force directly, would be the downfall of the Iranian revolutionary hopes and future. However, later developments have made one point a little clearer. The Iranians claimed through the Tehran Times that there really was a Plan B. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said on the 5 Nov 22 that Iran’s recent unrest was Plan B pursued by the United States and the U.S. had failed in implementing this plan. Hindsight can be a wonderful thing but to know the future is an outstanding achievement. To predict or know that the murder of a young female (Mahsa Amini) at the hands of the Islamic Republic’s morality police would spark off nationwide demonstrations is beyond being a psychic phenomenon knowing that Plan B was the demonstrations. There was no further explanation as he then changed the subject. There are numerous accounts of various countries being blamed by Iran for the unrest but being able to pick one out and claim that it was the American Plan B is a very clever achievement. Detracting from the sarcasm Iran did announce that it had successfully launched a new satellite carrier into space (Tasnim News Agency 5 Nov 22) using a solid fuel rocket. Iran claims that their space program is similar to its nuclear program and that it is for peaceful purposes. The west and the United States have and are suspicious of the space program as they believe that the same technology can be used to develop a rocket or missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It could be coincidental that the Iranian space program and its search for deeper penetration into space along with its nuclear program are being researched and established at the same time. Europe The demonstrations in an effort to stand up for human rights and the freedom of females in the Islamic Republic of Iran continues. The Iranians announced on the 1 Nov 22 that it was to hold public trials of a thousand people on trial and will do so in public in a Revolutionary Court. The protestors will be accused of “acts of sabotage, including assaulting or killing security guards and setting fire to public property.” Some will face the death penalty. On the 17 Oct 22 the European Union imposed sanctions on Iran’s morality police and officials were cited. From a CBS YouTube report dated 30 Oct 22 the news channel announced that there had been 1400 people such as lawyers, music artists, journalists along with other backgrounds had been ‘detained’. They also announced that 7 of those detained were to be executed. The trials come after a period of detention depending on the mental strength of the individual. Often, they are held with no contact with the outside world nor their families. They would endure intense interrogation from skilled interrogators and without proper access to a lawyer. These trails started on the 30 Oct 22 and the individuals were charged with ‘waging war’, ‘corruption of the earth’ or ‘corruption on earth’. It is important that the reader remembers that the Islamic Republic of Iran is worked on a Theocratic society. (A state thus governed; theocrat, a divine or deified ruler (1523)) These charges can lead to the death penalty. The trial of the accused is supposedly a ‘public trial’ but family members are rarely allowed in and detainees are not allowed an attorney of their choice but have a state appointed one. There is no independent press or media allowed into the ‘public’ trial, just state appointed press and media. Any evidence used in the trial is not seen by the detainee or their lawyer until the start of the trial. The evidence may have been fabricated and will not be allowed to have any cross examination. The detainee may have been forced to make a confession sometimes it is even televised which the detainee will have no knowledge of, this will be used against them. Any ‘witnesses’ presented will not be cross examined either. All in all, a fair system. Sanctions On the 26 Oct 22 Iran announced sanctions against eight institutions and 12 individuals based in the EU, accusing them of “supporting terrorist groups”, “inciting violence” and “provoking riots, violence and terrorist acts” in Iran in relation to the anti-regime protests. The Iranian blacklist includes the International Committee in Search of Justice, the International League against Racism and Anti-Semitism, and the Persian versions of German broadcaster Deutsche Welle and Radio France Internationale. European politicians and two individuals at the German tabloid newspaper Bild were also sanctioned. Those on the list are subject to visa bans and the seizure of any property or assets the targeted individuals and entities have in Iran. The sanctions placed on the European people and organisations don’t hold up too much. They are merely a propaganda tool used by the Iranians to inform the population that if sanctions are imposed on them, then they can do the same, ha, take that. The EU on the 31 Oct announced that it was looking to launch another sanction package against Iran and also look into listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. The thought of placing the IRGC on a terrorist list comes after the IRGC Commander announced on the 29 Oct 22 that that day would be the last day of taking to the streets and demonstrating. Although a separate issue, the Iranians announced on the 1 Nov 22 through the Tasnim News Agency that it was imposing sanctions on United States individuals, entities for Human Rights violations and gave a list of those who it “effected.” The day before, the same news outlook wrote that the spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Iran took a swipe at Germany for its unconstructive initiative to classify the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization”. Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Nasser Kanaani denounced Germany’s plan to add the IRGC to the list of “terrorist organizations” as another “irresponsible measure” in relation to the Islamic Republic that results from a “wrong approach” to the Iranian government and nation. The Tehran Times went further and asked if “Germany was playing with fire?” As Germany is part of the “ongoing” talks at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the Iranian regime said that ‘IF’ Germany (and/or the EU) was to place the IRGC on a terrorist list then it would complicate matters. The news outlet said, if “the EU sanctions on the IRGC would add another horrendous obstacle to reviving the JCPOA, if not spelling the end of the JCPOA.” Clearly an open threat in order to stop the implementation of the IRGC being placed on another foreign terrorist list. The Iranian foreign spokesman Kananni said, “The IRGC is an official military organization of Iran and such a move is illegal. We hope that the German government and other states take note of their unconstructive measures and refrain from sacrificing their bilateral interests for transient political interests and emotional decisions.” Approximately 50 German firms have offices in Iran and several companies have a major involvement in Iranian infrastructure projects. German banks announced in 2018 that German exports to Iran had been reduced by 1.8 billion euros. Another reason why Germany was so keen to revive the JCPOA agreement. Germany’s support for the demonstrations led 80,000 to the streets on the 22 Oct 22 showing “solidarity with courageous women and demonstrations in Iran. The Tehran Times put a different spin on the rally two days after the event. They claimed that the people of Germany took to the streets claiming that, “Protesters have staged demonstrations across Germany as the Ukraine war is seriously damaging the living standards of millions of middle-class citizens, many of whom are slipping into poverty.” It was an immense propaganda piece with nothing in it to give the real reason for the Germans holding such large gatherings. Iranian Guilt on Drones shows how Iran lies One of the top countries in the world for not telling the truth finally admitted in an Al-Arabiya report on the 5 Nov 22 that they were providing Russia with drones. Although not quiet going the full distance they stated that the drones had been supplied to Russia ‘before’ the illegal Russian invasion against the Ukraine on the 20 Feb 22. Their most common word for refuting all, or any involvement in anything they have been accused of, knowledge to have been involved in and/or intelligence that points to Iranian involvement is “baseless.” By their own admission, they have now, made the past comments regarding not supplying drones to Russia ‘baseless’. This was also due to the evidence stacked against the Islamic Republic of Iran that western intelligence services knew that Russia was being supplied with Iranian drones. When you look at the accusations against Iran for supplying the UAV’s they came long after the conflict had started and following reports that Russia had problems with its logistical chain regarding the resupplying of its front-line troops with arms, ammunition, drones and missiles. The so-called impartiality that the Islamic Republic of Iran alleges to show in the Russia/Ukraine conflict has now been blown out of the water and its evident that Iran has supported the Russians from the start. The Iranians have even lied to the United Nations. Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani called the allegations “totally unfounded” and reiterated Iran’s position of neutrality in the war. Iran’s foreign minister Amirabdollahian claimed on the 5 Nov 22 that Iran was oblivious to the use of its drones in Ukraine. He said Iran remained committed to stopping the conflict. The Iranian foreign minister has asked the Ukrainians to provide evidence regarding Iranian drones being used, why? By their own admission they have just self-confessed to supplying the drones to Russia so why did they not admit this earlier? On the 5 Nov 22 the only headline worthy of note in the Tehran Times was, “FM calls accusations against Iran on Ukraine fabricated, unsubstantiated.” On the one hand Iran lies to the world, on the other they lie to their own people. First, they admit the involvement then they state that they are not involved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained that the version of the Iranian drone admission was false. On the 5 Nov 22 he said, “Even with this confession, they are lying,” the Ukrainian leader said. The number of Iranian combat drones shot down by Ukrainian air defences exceeds the “few” drones cited by Iran. Al Jazeera carried another twist to the admission. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in the past has requested the Ukrainians to produce proof in Iran’s involvement with the war and provide evidence that would indicate Iran. The Tehran Times on the 22 Oct 22 made a comment regarding the so called evidence that had been produced regarding Iran backed Houthi forces launching drones at Saudi Arabian facilities. The news outlet stated “In December 2017, the then U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley stood in front of a pile of debris and scrap metal that could have been collected from the White House waste storage facilities and claimed that they were remnants of Iranian missiles that had been launched from Yemen.” “It’s just simply not enough to present so-called evidence with “made in Iran” written on a piece of metal because the American Special Forces in eastern Ukraine can easily make that up.” Not only did the wording change but also what the Iranians wanted in regards to proof of its involvement. Amirabdollahian explained on Press TV that, “We agreed with Ukraine’s foreign minister that if they have any ‘document’s’ proving Russia has been using Iranian drones in Ukraine, Kiev should provide these documents to us.” Documented evidence would be harder to come by that physical evidence which means that the lies and deceit will continue longer. Even if documented evidence was produced it would be quickly discounted by Iran as a Zionist or a United States plot that would be “politically motivated, biased and won’t deliver accurate results, levelling fake accusations against Iran with the intent of damaging Tehran’s international relations.” As claimed by the Tehran Times on the 22 Oct 22. |
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